Mark Langford's Weather Blog

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2011-01-07T11:31:00.001-08:00

So that I don't have to do duel postings, I have moved my weather blog to my Facebook weather page.

Super Dry October

2010-10-28T14:28:00.000-07:00

I have not recorded any measurable rainfall in Helotes this month.

This was just posted from our local NOAA office:

Statement as of 3:47 PM CDT on October 28, 2010

... October 2010 has so far been one of the drier octobers of record...

After the 2nd wettest September at Austin Mabry and the 6th wettest
September at San Antonio... October of 2010 is shaping up to be one
of the drier octobers at Austin... del Rio... and San Antonio.

So far October 2010 through today has been the 3rd driest October at
Austin Bergstrom since October 1942... the 5th driest at Austin Mabry
since 1856... a tie for the 3rd driest October at del Rio since
1906... and a tie for the 8th driest October at San Antonio since 1871.
The forecasts through Sunday the 31st show that no rain is expected
for south central Texas.

The list below shows the driest octobers of record at Austin...
del Rio... and San Antonio.

Austin Mabry has had 0.08 inches of rain from October 1st through
today. This makes October 2010 so far the 5th driest October at
Austin Mabry since 1856. The list below shows the driest octobers
at Austin Mabry.

1. 0.00 October 1893
2. Trace October 1952
3. 0.02 October 1947
4. 0.03 October 1934
5. 0.08 October 1 to 28... 2010

Austin Bergstrom has had 0.06 inches of rain from October 1st through
today. This makes October 2010 so far the 3rd driest October at
Austin Bergstrom since October 1942. The list below shows the driest
octobers at Austin Bergstrom.

1. 0.00 October 1952
2. 0.01 October 1947
3. 0.06 October 1 to 28... 2010
4. 0.21 October 1987
5. 0.33 October 1955

Del Rio has had 0.01 inches of rain from October 1st through today.
This makes October 2010 so far a tie with October of 1915 and
October of 1931 for the 3rd driest October at del Rio since 1906.
The list below shows the driest octobers at del Rio.

1. 0.00 October 1917 and 1979
2. Trace October 1950 and 1952
3. 0.01 October 1915... 1931 and October 1 to 28... 2010
4. 0.04 October 1955
5. 0.06 October 1909... 1970 and 1980

San Antonio has had 0.17 inches of rain from October 1st through
today. This makes October 2010 so far a tie with October of 1943
for the 8th driest October at San Antonio since 1871. The list
below shows the driest octobers at San Antonio.

1. Trace October 1952
2. 0.03 October 1898
3. 0.07 October 1939
4. 0.08 October 1893 and 1950
5. 0.11 October 1979
6. 0.12 October 1901
7. 0.13 October 1938
8. 0.17 October 1943 and October 1 to 28... 2010

Rainfall Totals for September

2010-10-01T12:33:00.000-07:00

My 6.54 inches of rain recorded in my backyard seems puny compared with other parts of the area. Here is a statement from NOAA on September rains:

... September 2010 was one of the wetter septembers at
Austin and San Antonio...

September 2010 was one of the wetter septembers at Austin and San Antonio.
Rainfall from a cold front late September 2nd to the early morning hours
of September 3rd was followed by scattered showers the afternoon
of the 6th and rains associated with Hermine the 7th through the
8th. Additional rain came from isolated showers the weekend of
September 11th and 12th to Tuesday the 14th... and more widespread
rain showers from Friday the 17th through Sunday the 19th.
Scattered daytime to early evening showers brought more rain on
Monday the 20th through Saturday the 25th... and isolated early
morning showers came with a cold front the morning of the 26th.
The rest of the month from the 27th to the 30th was dry.

Rainfall for September 2010 was the 2nd wettest September at
Austin Mabry... the 13th wettest at Austin Bergstrom... and the
6th wettest September at San Antonio. September 2010 was not one
of the wetter septembers at del Rio. Rainfall at del Rio was 2.06
inches in September of 2010... equal to the latest 30 year
1971 to 2000 average.

The list below shows the wettest septembers at Austin... del Rio...
and San Antonio.

The wettest septembers at Austin Mabry from 1856 to 2010 are listed below.
The 1971 to 2000 normal at Austin Mabry is 2.91 inches... while the
historical 1856 to 2010 average is 3.51 inches.

1. 20.78 September 1921
2. 13.20 September 2010
3. 12.78 September 1874
4. 12.33 September 1886
5. 10.54 September 1873

The wettest septembers at Austin Bergstrom international Airport from
1943 to 2010 are listed below. The 1971 to 2000 normal at Austin Bergstrom
for September is 2.88 inches... while the historical 1943 to 2010 average
is 3.29 inches.

1. 9.36 September 1986
2. 8.82 September 1957
3. 8.80 September 1958
4. 6.98 September 2009
5. 6.50 September 1967

13. 5.15 September 2010

The wettest septembers at San Antonio International Airport from 1871 to 2010
are listed below. The 1971 to 2000 normal for San Antonio is 3.00 inches...
while the historical 1871 to 2010 average is 3.36 inches.

1. 15.78 September 1946
2. 13.09 September 1973
3. 11.71 September 1874
4. 11.16 September 1967
5. 11.10 September 1957
6. 9.37 September 2010

The wettest septembers at del Rio from 1906 to 2010 are listed below.
At del Rio 2.06 inches of rain fell in September of 2010... equal to the
latest 1971 to 2000 normal. The historical 1906 to 2010 average
rain in September at del Rio is 2.50 inches.

1. 15.79 September 1964
2. 9.95 September 1932
3. 9.87 September 1970
4. 9.74 September 1919
5. 7.07 September 1991

Tropical this week...more "Fallish" next week!

2010-09-23T06:48:00.000-07:00

On this first full day of the Autumnal Equinox, I thought I'd reassure everyone that more fall like temperatures are only a few days away. The persistent tropical air mass and a stubborn jet stream to our north has been keeping us in the "Florida" mode for the past several weeks. On a positive note, we have had a great September as far as rainfall goes. This is important because we will be quickly entering a La Nina winter pattern, which typically is dry. So far, my backyard in Helotes has measured almost 6 inches of rain in September. As the first real cool front nears us on Sunday, look for an increase in rainfall chances, with a few thunderstorms developing along the front. After the front passes, computer models are showing dew points in the 40's and 50's for most of next week. I would not be surprised to see some of our lows drop into the 50's!

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is becoming concerned that Mathew may be about to form in the Caribbean today or tomorrow. This could be trouble for Florida early next week as the cool front pushes the storm in that direction.

September Rain totals from NOAA

2010-09-20T06:19:00.000-07:00

So far, in my backyard, we've received 5.52 inches of rain in September. Latest 3 day storm total has been 1.14 inches.

Here is the latest rainfall update from NOAA on 9-19-10:

.. September 2010 has become one of the wetter septembers at
Austin and San Antonio...

the first 19 days of September 2010 has brought one of the wetter
septembers to Austin and San Antonio. Rainfall from a cold front
late September 2nd to the early morning hours of September 3rd
was followed by scattered showers the afternoon of the 6th
and rains associated with Hermine the 7th through the 8th.
Additional rain came from isolated showers the weekend of
September 11th and 12th to Tuesday the 14th... and more widespread
rain showers from Friday the 17th through Sunday the 19th.

Rainfall for the first 19 days of September shows that September 2010
is so far the 4th wettest September at Austin Mabry... the 15th
wettest at Austin Bergstrom... and the 8th wettest at San Antonio.
With 11 more days left in September... the final figures for
September 2010 will change.

The list below shows the wettest septembers from the past compared
to the rain that has come from September 1st to 19th of 2010.

At Austin Mabry so far in September 2010... 12.19 inches of rain
has fallen. The wettest septembers at Austin Mabry from 1856 to
2009 are listed below.

1. 20.78 September 1921
2. 12.78 September 1874
3. 12.33 September 1886
4. 10.54 September 1873
5. 9.70 September 1859

At Austin Bergstrom international Airport so far in September
2010... 4.75 inches of rain has fallen.

The wettest septembers at Austin Bergstrom from 1943 to 2009 are listed
below.

1. 9.36 September 1986
2. 8.82 September 1957
3. 8.80 September 1958
4. 6.98 September 2009
5. 6.50 September 1967

at San Antonio International Airport so far in September 2010... 8.90
inches of rain has fallen.

The wettest septembers at San Antonio from 1885 to 2009 are
listed below.

1. 15.78 September 1946
2. 13.09 September 1973
3. 11.71 September 1874
4. 11.16 September 1967
5. 11.10 September 1957
6. 9.21 September 2003
7. 8.95 September 1882
8. 8.87 September 1896

The scattered showers the past few days have brought brief wind
gusts to the area.

Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms moving across south
central Texas today produced brief wind gusts around 30 to 39 mph
in the afternoon.

Peak wind information from a few airports across south central Texas
from the scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday
September 19th are listed below.

Pleasanton... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .23 mph
New Braunfels Municipal Airport... ... ... .35 mph
Randolph AFB... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..23 mph
San Antonio Stinson field... ... ... ... ... .26 mph
San Antonio International Airport... ... ..39 mph
Austin Bergstrom international Airport... 33 mph
Austin Camp Mabry... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 28 mph
del Rio International Airport... ... ... ... 28 mph

Rainfall totals from Hermine

2010-09-08T09:01:00.000-07:00

It's been a very interesting past 24hrs around here, due to Tropical Storm Hermine. As most of you know by now, the storm passed directly over Bexar County around noon on Tuesday the 7th, dropping lots of rain and giving the San Antonio Airport wind gusts to 60mph. At my place in Helotes, winds stayed in the 30's. Rainfall totals have been impressive for most of our area and I have posted some latest graphics with this posting. For my backyard, we've had just over 4 inches, but that total is actually much less than most of Bexar and surrounding counties as you can see by the graphics I have posted from Weather Underground. We missed the big rains last night and are currently missing a "Rain Train" that has developed within a few miles of here, extending from near Hondo, through Fair Oaks and all of the way to north of Austin. This line of storms has moved little in the past 5 hours!

Hermine moving more northerly now...less rain, more wind!

2010-09-07T05:44:00.000-07:00

This is what I was worried about....the latest update on Hermine from our local NOAA office:

Hermine made landfall late last night just south of Brownsville...and is currently tracking north across south Texas. Current position is near Alice where they are getting tropical storm force wind gusts near 50 mph. The storm is moving slightly to the right of the current forecast track.

The track of Hermine will take the storm north during the day, crossing near the San Antonio area by 1pm. The storm continues to move north at 17 mph. This has allowed the storm to keep its strength a little longer than earlier anticipated. Because of this, am introducing some possible wind impacts across the far southern areas of South Central Texas over Atascosa, Frio, and Karnes Counties. Across these counties, tropical storm force winds of 40 mph are possible, with some gusts up to 50 mph. These winds could start as early as 9am...and last several hours through early afternoon. These winds may be strong enough for some minor wind damage and power outages. Will have to watch this closely as wind impacts could move farther north into the San Antonio area. Gusty conditions will prevail elsewhere across South Central Texas during the day with winds forecast of 25 to 35 mph...some gusts as high as 50 mph in the heavier rain bands.

Because of the fast movement and track of the storm, we are scaling back our total rain forecast, especially over western areas. I have attached the latest graphic with our thinking of rainfall potential. 3-5 inches mainly east of a Kerrville to Pearsall line, 1-3 inches west of this line. We can still get some isolated totals in the 8-10 inch range...but my confidence of this is going down because of Hermine's fast movement.

East of the forecast track...the threat of isolated tornadoes will remain. Tornado watches will likely be in effect for portions of the day. The small tropical tornadoes typically occur in the strongest storms/rainbands. This threat area will be mainly east of 281 late this morning and afternoon as storms intensify. The tornado threat will lower tonight as the storm moves out of our area.

So as a recap...the threats are changing. Wind threat will increase through this morning over the southern half of South Central Texas as Hermine moves quickly north. Damage is being reported in Jim Wells County. Widespread flash flood threat is decreasing. Flash flooding will still likely occur in some locations, but overall rain amounts should be lower than originally anticipated due to Hermine's fast movement to the north.

For the latest watches, warnings, and advisories....check our website atwww.srh..noaa.gov/ewx

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Latest from NOAA-6pm

2010-09-06T15:37:00.001-07:00

Here is the very latest from our local NOAA office about Tropical Storm Hermine:

No major changes from our earlier updates on the heavy rain event that is forecast over the area on Tuesday. Already today we are starting to see the moisture surge into the coastal plains of Texas ahead of Hermine. This will likely continue over the next 36 hours as Hermine makes landfall, and then tracks northward up into the western Hill Country by Tuesday night.

The track of Hermine has been fairly steady during the day...making landfall tonight south of Brownsville...and then moving steadily north northwest overnight. By early afternoon Tuesday, the center of the weakening system will be just east of Eagle Pass...and then be near Uvalde by 7 pm Tuesday evening.

Since Hermine has sped up...I am updating our target window of highest threats to include 10am-10pm on Tuesday for most of the area. Its during the late morning, afternoon, and evening on Tuesday that south central Texas will likely see its heaviest rains. Areas over the western and northern Hill Country will see the threat time expand several hours past midnight early Wednesday morning.

Widespread rains of 2-5 inches are possible...with blinding tropical downpours and rain rates of 1-3 inches per hour. This will likely cause flash flooding in some areas and is why we have a Flash Flood Watch out until noon on Wednesday. As bands of rain set up and move north through the area, there is the possibility of some isolated rain totals near 12 inches. Flash flooding is the #1 weather related killer. Take precautions now. There will likely be flooded roads somewhere in South Central Texas by this time tomorrow. Heed warnings and dont drive through low water crossings. As the system moves north into the Edwards Plateau after midnight early Wed morning, our heavy rain threat will lower. Only residual flooding on creeks, streams, and rivers will likely remain on Wednesday.

As we saw in Dolly...areas to the right of the tropical cyclone's track could see isolated tornadoes develop in the strongest showers/storms/rainbands. Be on the lookout for these small tornadoes as they will occur very quickly and with little warning. The pockets of damage are usually fairly small and isolated, but can bring additional tree and structure damage.

A wind advisory has been issued for most areas of South Central Texas with gusty winds of 20-30 mph expected on Tuesday. By far, the main threats with the system remain the heavy rainfall and isolated tornado threat.

Please see the latest forecast, watches, warnings, and advisories on our website at
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin San Antonio TX

Here comes Hermine!

2010-09-06T06:38:00.000-07:00

Here is the latest info from NOAA on Tropical Storm Hermine...

Overnight, Tropical Depression #10 strengthened a bit and is now officially Tropical Storm Hermine. Hermine is forecast to remain a tropical storm before she makes landfall early Tuesday over northern Mexico just south of Brownsville. I have attached the latest track of Hermine.

This means the heavy rain threat will continue for South Central Texas through at least mid day on Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of South Central Texas starting midnight tonight and lasting until Noon on Wednesday. As Hermine makes her way onshore, Gulf moisture will spread north into the region. This rainfall will start as early as today along the southern coastal plains and continue through Wednesday as the storm moves across southern areas of Texas and into the Hill Country by Wednesday afternoon.

The main threat for our area will be the heavy rainfall. The 24hr time frame from Noon Tue to Noon Wed appears to be the time for the highest likelihood of flooding...with Tuesday night still possibly being a bullseye for flooding somewhere in our area. Flood events very often happen at night during tropical events. Rain rates of 1-3 inches per hour will likely lead to flash flooding across the region with widespread rain totals of 2-5 inches expected....isolated higher totals of 5-10 inches in a few spots. I have attached a graphic from our office showing the threat area. I have also attached a graphic showing the region-wide rainfall potential. Remember that Flash Flooding is the number one weather related killer.

As Hermine gets better organized over the next 24 hours, this will spread a small tornado threat into south central Texas over the next 48 hours. Typically we will see the highest threat area to the right of the landfalling track. These tropical tornadoes come with little warning as they usually remain fairly small and can last for generally less than 10 min. They can bring small pockets of damage like we saw with Dolly in 2008.

Rain chances will decrease by Wednesday night and Thursday as the main circulation will be moving north into the southern plains out of our area. Please keep up to date on the latest forecast track of Hermine and our Flash Flood potential by going to our website at www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

Stay safe and alert.

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Almost no rain in August, watch out for Gaston and a "not so hot" front on the way!

2010-09-01T14:33:00.000-07:00

For more timely updates please see my postings on Mark Langford's Weather Page.

For the entire month of August, only 0.12 of rain fell at my place. The lack of rain and the high temps have extremely stressed my yard and pocketbook for the watering I'm doing just to keep my plants alive. La Niña is definitely back!

Gaston has formed this afternoon out in the Atlantic...this one bears watching since some of the models are taking him into Florida and possibly the Gulf.

I now have some new employees working for my weather page...

Noah Raydio and Sally

An early season "not so hot" front will limp through our area tomorrow night, giving us a chance for some scattered showers. So far, in my backyard, I've gotten the scattered part of the showers instead of the showers!

Front and possible rain on the way!

2010-08-24T08:46:00.001-07:00

Here is a statement from our local NOAA office at 10:30am.

An upper level disturbance located over the TX and OK panhandles will be moving south overnight. In addition, a weak cool front over northwest Texas will be sagging south during the day and will try to push into the Hill Country by late this afternoon. These factors, along with very hot temperatures, will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to form to our north and northwest later today. Upper level winds will then track these storms across portions of South Central Texas later this evening and overnight. There may be a few isolated showers/storms late this afternoon over the far northwest portions of the area...but the main threat time will be from 9pm-4am.

Dry air is in place across the region. Because of this storms will have a higher likelihood of producing damaging wind gusts. Winds of 50-60 mph can be expected with the strongest storms as they move south. This wind should be enough to cause small clusters of minor wind damage including trees down, power lines down, etc. Some small hail is also possible but is not the main threat. The greatest threat area will likely be along and west of I-35 including the Hill Country. Models show this activity to continue to move south during the night and affect areas of the Rio Grande from Eagle Pass up to Del Rio. The activity will remain scattered overnight...so many areas will likely remain dry.

The weather pattern is shifting a bit toward the weekend/next week where we will see a better influence from the Gulf. That in turn usually means higher humidities, and at least small chances of rain. It also means putting an end to many of the triple digit temperatures.

Please look for the latest forecasts, watches, warnings, and advisories on our website at www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Changes ahead...

2010-08-20T07:55:00.000-07:00

August is my least favorite month for weather in San Antonio, but one of the good things about the searingly hot month is that the last week is normally the beginning of a slow, but real transition into Fall. As most of you know, our definition of Fall is different than up north. For San Antonio, Fall usually means less intense heat and increasing chances for moisture. The first signs of that change should arrive during the middle of this week, when we may see our first "not so hot" front dive far enough south to break down the "Hell High", giving us a good chance of rain for several days. If the Hell High abates, look for a more tropical pattern, similar to what we were experiencing during the first half of the summer. That will not only lower our temperatures, but increase the chances of seeing some tropical systems in the Gulf. Hopefully those systems will stay weak and not cause any major damage, but with the Atlantic and Gulf water temperatures running above normal, the chances of several major hurricanes forming in September look very good.

Image in the upper left corner is the forecast front on Wednesday afternoon.

Rain chances are diminishing

2010-07-22T14:18:00.000-07:00

I haven't written any new weather blogs in a couple of weeks because there hasn't been much to talk about. July is generally a dry month and this one is living up to its reputation, except for the abundance of humidity!

This afternoon, the second of 3 tropical waves is moving into South Texas, where they don't need the extra rain. So far, San Antonio has been limited to a few short lived "random poppers", which have avoided my backyard like the plague! After Saturday, our rain chances quickly evaporate into the July sunshine and according to the latest info at 4pm, the Hurricane Center thinks the depression in the Caribbean will move into Louisiana, putting San Antonio on the dry and hot side of the system.

Fortunately, it's still early in the tropical season and hopefully some "light duty" storms will work their way into our area before we slip into another drought. Speaking of drought, it is looking as though La Niña is about to re-emerge in the Pacific again. If so, look for a dry and moderate winter for this upcoming season. For more info, click here.

2010-07-08T15:36:00.000-07:00

So far, the rains from tropical depression #2 have been pretty scant around my place in Helotes today. My 12 hr. storm total is 0.09.

NOAA is still thinking we will see some heavy rain overnight. Below is their latest thinking:

Here is a brief update and the outlook for tonight and Friday.

The remnants of TD#2 will continue to move west-northwest
just south of the U.S-Mexico border in the Lower Rio Grande
Valley tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread
across Texas. We expect quite a few locations to receive
1-2 inches of rain tonight through Friday afternoon, with
some locations receiving up to 6 inches, especially across the
Rio Grande Plains.

There may be minor flash flooding anywhere in our area where
1-2 inches of rain falls in a short period of time. The Flash Flood
Watch has been extended areawide through Noon on Friday.
However, the main threat will be continued major flooding along
the Rio Grande.

Our latest briefing graphic is attached, and of course, all the latest
weather and river information is available on our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/austin

-Jon Zeitler
NWS Austin/San Antonio

Flooding situation to the west

2010-07-06T06:27:00.000-07:00

Here is the latest from NOAA on the horrific flooding going on to the west of San Antonio. Rainfall amounts in Mexico have been over 20 inches and more may be on the way.

NOAA 7-6-10:

It has been several days now since Alex made landfall...but the moisture over central and northern Mexico continues to produce huge rainfall totals in the mountains just west of Del Rio and the Rio Grande River. Additional rains are ongoing and will add to the already incredible totals that are being estimated by radar...upwards of 15-20+ inches in an area roughly the size of New Jersey. I have attached an image showing the estimated totals over the past 7 days. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until at least 7 am Tuesday for Val Verde, Kinney, and Maverick Counties.

These large rainfall totals have led to major flooding along the Rio Grande from areas just northwest of Del Rio...down to Eagle Pass. The current heavy rain will produce even more runoff and we are expecting to have this flood event continue for the next several days at least. The inflow into Lake Amistad near Del Rio has led to an incredible 15 foot rise in the lake since Friday. As a result, large amounts of water will be released from the Dam and will lead to flooding downstream. The latest IBWC press release can be found here...
http://www.ibwc.state.gov/Files/Press_Release_070510.pdf

What worries me is that satellite images show a stream of moisture moving northward from
southern Mexico all the way north into the Big Bend...with no real end in sight. As long as we keep this moisture tap flowing north, the heavy rains will continue over the river basins that flow into the Rio Grande.

This is becoming a very dangerous situation. Another tropical wave near the Yucatan is forecast to approach northern Mexico or portions of Texas by mid to late week. This in fact could spread even more moisture into northern sections of Mexico and lead to even more rainfall.

Please monitor the latest forecasts, watches, and warnings by going to the National Weather Service website at www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx
River/lake stages and flood forecasts can be found at the AHPS website :
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ewx
and a quick briefing webpage from the West Gulf River Forecast Center can be found at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/HMDmain.php

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Happy 4th...update from NOAA

2010-07-04T09:57:00.000-07:00

As some of you might know by now, the remains of Alex are causing heavy rain and flooding to the west of San Antonio. Here is the latest update (Noon-7-4-10) from NOAA:

Moisture from what was Hurricane Alex continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms over the mountains of Mexico and portions of West and Southwest Texas. Radar estimates that there has been 20+ inches of rain in a large area to the west and southwest of Del Rio over the last several days. Most of this area drains into the Rio Grande and has led to flooding along the River in spots and some of its tributaries. More recently in the past 24 hours, more of this moisture has moved north and is affecting the western 2/3rds of Val Verde county where currently flash flooding is occurring mainly west and northwest of Del Rio. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Val Verde county until Monday morning as several more inches of rain are possible across this area of Val Verde County. People and residents, as well as holiday travelers, campers, etc need to be aware that this is a dangerous situation across this area of Southwest Texas and everybody needs to take appropria
te precautions to stay out of harms way. Camping in and near creeks, rivers, and streams during this time is very dangerous and should be avoided.

As the rain continues across this area...we will see an increasing threat for significant flooding along the Rio Grande over the next several days....this includes areas of Val Verde, Kinney, and Maverick counties. I have attached the latest graphic from the West Gulf River Forecast Center showing this threat area.

Across other areas of South Central Texas today and Monday...scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible especially in the afternoon hours. It shouldnt be enough to cancel plans, but everybody should be prepared for a passing shower/tstorm. Brief heavy downpours are possible.

Please keep updated to the latest Flash Flood Watches, Warnings, and River Flood Warnings by going to the National Weather Service website at www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx
and to the AHPS webpage at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ewx

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Latest from NOAA 2pm-7-2

2010-07-02T12:20:00.000-07:00

Looking at radar at 2:20 pm., it is starting to fill in with lots of red as tropical "poppers" make their way toward San Antonio. With an abundance of moisture in the form of ridiculously high dew points, some heavy rain appears to be eminent. My storm total in Helotes so far is 1.5 inches.

Here is the latest from NOAA:

The rich tropical atmosphere is very apparent as soon as you step outside. This is leading to the widespread showers and thunderstorms that are moving across most areas of South Central Texas early this afternoon. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 pm tonight...and will likely be extended until 7 am Saturday. Only minor flood issues are ongoing across some areas of South Central Texas as the storms are moving fairly quick at 30 mph and rain rates have averaged under 1 inch per hour. But as the afternoon progresses and some areas get additional showers/storms to train over the same areas, the threat for heavier rain and flooding will increase. Widespread rains of 1-2 inches are possible with isolated totals near 4 to 5 inches.

There will be a lot of people on the road later today trying to get a jump start on their holiday weekend...so please be careful and Turn Around Dont Drown. Dont risk driving through the flooded roadways and low water crossings. Many will be staying at camp grounds next to or along creeks, streams, or rivers. These areas are particularly dangerous during these heavy rain events. And as we saw several weeks ago with the flood in New Braunfels and in Arkansas...flooding at night can be particularly deadly. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and the National Weather Service website for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories.... www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

The heavy rain from Alex over northern Mexico is draining into the Rio Grande and is leading to some moderate flooding just above Lake Amistad. Areas near and along the Rio Grande should pay particular attention to the weather and forecasts of the Rio Grande as well as other areas rivers and creeks. They can be monitored from the following website...http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ewx

As the holiday weekend quickly approaches...scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours will occur again on Saturday, with roughly a 40-50 percent chance for rain mainly in the morning through evening hours. On the 4th of July, will still carry a 30-40% chance of rain...with chances dropping to near 20% by the time of fireworks Sunday evening. There is fairly high confidence that the overall coverage of rain activity will be much less on Sunday afternoon and evening.

Be careful this holiday weekend, the wet conditions will make driving hazardous and rivers/creeks will be flowing quickly.

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin San Antonio TX

Latest from NOAA

2010-07-01T15:13:00.000-07:00

I've gotten 3/4 of an inch of rain in my backyard today...hoping for more. According to the latest long range forecasts, it looks like a good chance for wetter than normal conditions for the next two weeks. Here is the latest from NOAA:

Bands of light to moderate rain continue this afternoon across much of South Central Texas. Overall rain totals across most of the area have generally been less than one half inch...with higher totals over 1 inch south and east of San Antonio. The threat for locally heavy rain will continue tonight and into Friday as rich tropical moisture continues to move into the area. For this reason the Flash Flood Watch has been extended for most of South Central Texas until 7 am Friday morning. I have attached the graphic of the latest rainfall forecast. Over the next 48 hours...some areas south and west of Austin may receive an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain...isolated totals possible near 4 inches. There remains a low to moderate flood threat along the Rio Grande as moisture from Alex produces heavy rain over Northern Mexico and is forecast to track north into West Texas over the weekend. Northern areas of South Central Texas will likely receive less rain...averaging 1-2 inches.

These bands of showers and thunderstorms can and will produce torrential downpours at times...with hourly rain rates of 1 to 2 inches. This will cause ponding of water on roads, localized flooding in urban areas, and some creeks and streams may fill or even overflow. Drivers need to be aware of possible flooded low water crossings.

Rain chances will slowly decrease through the holiday weekend...but with daytime heating and plenty of tropical moisture in place, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast. The scattered nature of the storms however should mean that there would be only minor interruptions to outdoor activities. Still, the weekend storms may still produce 1-2 inches of rain in some isolated spots. Rain chances go down to around 20% by Sunday night.

Keep informed of the latest weather information by going to the National Weather Service website at www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

3pm NOAA Update on Alex Impact

2010-06-29T13:23:00.000-07:00

I'm devoting my blog to the latest update from our local NOAA office in regard to the impacts from Alex:

Alex continues to slowly strengthen and is making a path toward deep South Texas and extreme northern Mexico. Ahead of this tropical system...easterly and northeasterly flow to its north is pulling in copeous amounts of moisture from the northern Gulf. This moisture, combined with a weakness aloft and daytime heating will continue to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next 24 hours ahead of Alex. This activity has the potential to create locally heavy rain with some isolated Flash Flooding concerns. Some of these storms may have rain rates on the order of 1-2 inches of rain per hour...enough to cause problems in low lying areas as well as urban areas.

As Alex makes landfall to our south by late Wednesday...even more moisture will push onshore and make it into South Central Texas. It appears that the main threat from this system will be locally heavy rain and possible flooding. I have attached the latest graphic showing the rainfall estimates that are forecast by our meteorologists. 3 to 4 inches with some isolated totals of 6 inches or more are generally forecast for southern areas of South Central Texas. As the center of Alex is forecast to be well south of the area, we do not expect to have sustained tropical storm force winds...Breezy conditions of 15-30 mph may occur generally south of line from Del Rio to San Antonio to Cuero. The strongest winds 20-30 mph will likely occur Wednesday night with some slightly higher gusts. These forecast wind speeds can also be found on the graphic. However, with any thunderstorm, there is a threat for gusty winds of 30-40, maybe as high as 50 mph.

Any sort of Tornado threat appears to be small. If we do get a threat for small tropical tornadoes, this threat would likely occur Wed night or Thursday as rain bands from Alex rotate west and northwest into the area. This would mainly impact southern areas of South Central Texas.

If the remnants of Alex head west as forecast, we will continue to see a threat of heavy rainfall through Friday. The threat may in fact then turn into a river flood threat for areas along the Rio Grande River near Eagle Pass and Del Rio. I have attached a 2nd graphic showing this threat as well.

Overall, the threat for South Central Texas appears to be mainly heavy rain...with some southern areas getting isololated totals of 6 inches or more over the next several days. Stay informed by going to the National Weather Service webpage www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx and monitoring the latest forecasts and tracks of Alex.

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

The Latest on Alex...

2010-06-28T14:32:00.000-07:00

The Hurricane Center has just released their 4pm update...they are shifting Alex to the south of where they were this morning, putting its landfall about 60 miles to the south of Brownsville. That would lower our rainfall chances, but since we will be in the right hand quadrant as it moves inland, it should give us some decent rainfall. There are still some models taking it to the north of that track...we shall see.

Meanwhile, the rare summer cool front is just to the NW of San Antonio, on a San Angelo to Abilene line. Along and to the south of the front isolated storms are forming this afternoon, but as of now, none have wound up in my backyard...just dry and hot in Helotes. Between the dying front and tropical storm Alex, I still think our chances for several inches of rain this week look good.

One of my favorite sites for tracking hurricanes is Stormpulse. Nice graphics!

Where oh where will Alex go?

2010-06-27T14:17:00.000-07:00

Late this afternoon, tropical depression Alex was almost finished traveling through the Yucatan peninsula and is about to move into the SW Gulf of Mexico. According to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, Alex should redevelop into a tropical storm, then a category one hurricane, before moving NW into near Tampico,Mexico on Thursday. If that occurs, San Antonio will have to rely on a very rare "summer cool front" to move close enough to us to deliver some much needed rainfall. Even with a wet Spring, highs in the 90's tend to bake our vegetation around here and it does not take long to quickly move into a dry and brown landscape.

Here's where it all gets interesting...most of the time, by now, the "spaghetti" computer plots as they are known, start combining into a pretty narrow field of where a tropical system is going. With Alex, because of the rare cool front moving toward Texas and a fairly strong trough to our NE, several major computer models continue to bring Alex much closer to San Antonio. The GFS takes it into Houston, the HWRF into Corpus and the GFDL and NAM take it into Brownsville, which would all lead to some potentially big rains for south Texas. I'm leaning toward the models that take Alex near Brownsville...we shall see.

No matter what happens, it should be an exciting weather week around here...especially for this time in the summer, when it is normally pretty boring. Another positive sign this afternoon is the extended forecasts. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 forecasts are showing near normal temperatures and above normal rainfall.

Tropical "Something" Update....

2010-06-25T14:55:00.000-07:00

Sorry I haven't updated this blog for a while, but I've been busy doing my "photo thing" and not much has been happening, weather wise.

Latest computer models are indicating a trough to form in the NE part of the country next week, changing our upper air flow from the tropical SE, to the NW. If this happens, the potential tropical "something" will stay to the south of Texas but our rain chances may increase from afternoon thunderstorms moving in from the NW...a more fall like pattern instead of summer. We may even see a cool front make a run for our area.

Meanwhile, the Hurricane Center wants to take the "depression" and possible tropical storm "Alex" into the Gulf by Wednesday. If Alex were to stay on the course of the Hurricane Center, we could see some big rains as it moves into Texas instead of Mexico. Either scenario looks promising for potential rain next week.

I'll be updating the storm this weekend.

A possible tropical system in Atlantic

2010-06-14T18:17:00.001-07:00

A tropical low, almost off the coast of Africa, is being investigated by the Hurricane Center (Invest 92) for possible development. If it does turn into something it would not be a threat to the US until the end of this month. That's also our next chance of rain for San Antonio according to the latest models. Meanwhile, big storms with heavy rains are falling to the NW of us in north central Texas. The line of storms appears to be heading toward Dallas.

Here's what the National Hurricane Center has to say:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AFTER THAT. THERE
REMAINS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Hell High not as big as advertised

2010-06-05T10:08:00.000-07:00

Although it will be getting pretty toasty in the San Antonio area for the next couple of days, the worst of the "Hell High" appears to be missing us. Because of that, look for increasing chances of rain, starting on Tuesday, and lasting for the rest of the week.

With the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf much warmer than average, I think we will see an early tropic season this summer. Hopefully there will be only tropical depressions in the Gulf instead of major hurricanes, but with El Nino leaving, major storms are possible.

In Helotes, our yearly rainfall now stands at 25.39 inches, with almost 6 more months to come.

Storm Reports from NOAA

2010-06-03T05:21:00.000-07:00

Below are some storm reports from last night's fast moving, big storm. At my place in Helotes, I witnessed a couple of large limbs fall from my neighbor's home around 8:30 last night as I was outside. Unfortunately, the computer that controls my weather station needed to be re-booted, so I did not record the high wind gusts of over 60 mph that were reported within a mile of my home, but seeing the damage done to trees in the neighborhood and being outside when the gusts occurred, I feel confident that we had similar winds. Rainfall total at my place was 0.61 inches.

06/02/2010 0815 PM

N Leon Springs, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.

Winds gusting to 50 mph and numerous power lines down.

06/02/2010 0825 PM

N sea world, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e50 mph, reported by park service.

Winds gusting over 50 mph.

06/02/2010 0830 PM

3 miles SW of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e50 mph, reported by NWS employee.

06/02/2010 0830 PM

N Castle Hills, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by amateur radio.

Numerous power outages.

06/02/2010 0830 PM

8 miles NNE of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.

Numerous trees blown down around the San Antonio
Airport.

06/02/2010 0830 PM

4 miles NNE of Alamo height Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.

EST 60 mph. Large tree limbs down

06/02/2010 0832 PM

San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m64 mph, reported by ASOS.

06/02/2010 0839 PM

7 miles W of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e60 mph, reported by amateur radio.

Winds over 60 mph and nea loop 1604 and Bandera.
Several lines blown down.

06/02/2010 0840 PM

2 miles N of Alamo Heights, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.

Several tree limbs down and shingles blown from roofs

06/02/2010 0859 PM

N Alamo Heights, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by amateur radio.

Several tree Downs.

06/02/2010 0905 PM

10 miles S of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Hail e0.50 inch, reported by amateur radio.

Pea to Marble size hail report south of downtown San
Antonio.

06/02/2010 0840 PM

2 miles N of Alamo Heights, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.

Several tree limbs down and shingles blown from roofs

06/02/2010 0830 PM

4 miles NNE of Alamo height, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.

EST 60 mph. Large tree limbs down

06/02/2010 0905 PM

10 miles S of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Hail e0.50 inch, reported by amateur radio.

Pea to Marble size hail report south of downtown San
Antonio.

06/02/2010 0859 PM

N Alamo Heights, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by amateur radio.

Several tree Downs.

06/02/2010 0839 PM

7 miles W of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e60 mph, reported by amateur radio.

Winds over 60 mph and nea loop 1604 and Bandera.
Several lines blown down.

06/02/2010 0830 PM

8 miles NNE of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.

Numerous trees blown down around the San Antonio
Airport.

06/02/2010 0830 PM

N Castle Hills, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by amateur radio.

Numerous power outages.

06/02/2010 0825 PM

N sea world, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e50 mph, reported by park service.

Winds gusting over 50 mph.

06/02/2010 0832 PM

San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m64 mph, reported by ASOS.

06/02/2010 0830 PM

3 miles SW of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e50 mph, reported by NWS employee.

06/02/2010 0815 PM

N Leon Springs, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.

Winds gusting to 50 mph and numerous power lines down.

Latest GFS looks promising

2010-06-02T05:49:00.000-07:00

Latest computer runs are looking more optimistic for rain chances and rain amounts for late this afternoon or evening as an upper low moves this way from NW of us. We need every drop we can get before the "Hell High" moves in by later this week. Once the Hell High moves in, we could have 1-2 weeks of above normal temps and below normal precipitation.

Rain chances going away, pollution moving in...

2010-05-26T11:03:00.001-07:00

As high pressure builds above us in the next 24 hrs, rain chances will diminish and pollution will be on the increase. Our winds have switched to the East and NE, which during the summer months, brings in transported pollution (both man-made and natural) from the eastern parts of the United States. This added pollution, which normally does not exist in our area, may cause our ozone levels to rise to over 70 ppb. by Friday and Saturday. This is a perfect example of why our current system of penalizing cities like San Antonio for high ozone is wrong. Without the additional pollution, San Antonio never reaches high ozone levels. Last summer, despite our searing heat and cloudless days, we did not go above the EPA mandated 8hr. Ozone Average Maximum of 75 ppb.. And now, the EPA may act to lower the maximum 8hr. standard even lower, forcing almost ever small, medium and large cities into non-attainment.

Below are two links to follow the potential high ozone event. On the first link, look at the sulfates in the upper right hand corner. Sulfates signify where the pollution "blob" is in the country. On the second link, just go to the ozone forecast and check out forecast where high ozone will occur. Notice that high levels will be occurring out in the Gulf of Mexico, where there are no cars. Speaking of no cars, check out the past 10 days of ozone for Joshua Tree National Park, a desolate area in south central California. They have already had several high ozone events in the past 10 days.

Navy Aerosol Forecast

NOAA Ozone Forecast

"Pop-O-Matic" Storms!

2010-05-25T13:38:00.000-07:00

Take an unstable atmosphere, add some heat and humidity and you get lots of afternoon "poppers". While we missed out on the record 7 inch rainfall in Del Rio last night, we still managed a developing cell around 11am this morning that dropped a half inch at my backyard. With a little luck, many of us will see some brief downpours of rain this afternoon. One of the computer models wants to make it flood around here this evening...

In case some of you are too young to catch my humor in the title of this blog:

Pop O Matic-Trouble

An Exciting Afternoon Ahead!

2010-05-17T14:14:00.000-07:00

Wow! Another exciting day around here...we've got another mesoscale convective system moving down from the north, which I've been following since this morning when it formed near Amarillo, and other storms forming to the east and west of San Antonio.

With an abundance of heat and humidity outside, it would not surprise me to see some severe weather in the San Antonio area by sunset. Right now the biggest threat is heavy rain, high winds and hail. No mention of tornadoes for us, but a slight chance to our west.

Latest from NOAA

2010-05-15T15:50:00.000-07:00

Most of south central Texas has enjoyed a beautiful day after the large thunderstorm cluster brought more flooding overnight. Late this afternoon, some strong thunderstorms are already forming over the far western hill country near Mason. These may stick together and bring an evening thunderstorm threat to areas generally west of Austin say across mainly Llano and Burnet counties. These storms will have to overcome some capping in the atmosphere to make it farther east however...so we will keep the chances of this happening at about 30-40%. Strong gusty winds in excess of 60 mph and large hail would be the primary threat. These may last well into the evening hours if they can hold together.

Also of concern is yet another upper level disturbance over southern NM which will be moving across west Texas later tonight and then likely triggering additional storms west of our area late tonight. Much like last night...these storms may organize into a large cluster of storms and move over south central Texas primarily after midnight. The main threat if this scenario plays out, would be locally heavy rains in the 3-5 inch range. There is a small severe threat later tonight over the SW near the Rio Grande as large storms fire over the Mexican mountains and move east of the Rio Grande.

Unfortunately there is still a lot of uncertainty about the scenarios. But everybody needs to be on the lookout. Many areas cant handle any additional rainfall. Many rivers, creeks, and rivers are already in Flood stage. A Flash Flood Watch may have to be considered later tonight.

I have attached the latest graphic. Please keep watch this afternoon and tonight as the system develops. Log onto our website for the latest watches and warnings. www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

More rain is on the way...

2010-05-15T11:08:00.000-07:00

According to today's 5 day rainfall forecast from NOAA, we could see an additional 1-3 inches of rain in our area by the end of the week. A stationary cool front and a series of upper level disturbances will cause more thunderstorms to form over most of Texas in the next few days.

Last night's mesoscale convective system moved through the San Antonio from NW Texas and dropped an additional 1.83 inches of rain in my backyard, giving me a 24hr storm total of 5.88 inches of rain. Having gone almost a month without rain, it was very welcome.

The Storm Prediction Center is showing a slight chance for severe storms to our west on both Saturday and Sunday. My guess is that because of the storms last night cooling the atmosphere, Sunday afternoon will be a better day for potential tornadoes to our west and northwest.

For an update on our monthly and yearly rainfall totals go to my weather page.

NOAA Statement and Storm chances this weekend

2010-05-14T14:22:00.000-07:00

Here's the latest from NOAA on today's rain event and what we can expect this weekend:

NOAA: Sorry for the delayed posting, the weather situation is
not being handled well at all by the models or from our
expectations based on climatology and how heavy rain
events develop. We wanted to have the best information
possible for you.

A series of upper level ripples will move across Texas over
the weekend. The computer models have a hard time telling
which of these ripples will ignite thunderstorms. Obviously,
the ripple early this morning was at a very unusual time of day,
and produced over 8 inches of rain in northern Medina County,
and significant rain for nearly everywhere along and east of I-35.

The ripples tend to come along every 12-18 hours, but since our
coverage area is oriented east to west, we could have one in the
coastal plains and another just coming across the Rio Grande
further west at the same time.

The bottom line is we expect severe storms mainly over the
Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau tonight and Saturday,
then over the Hill Country and Metro Austin on Sunday.
We expect the heaviest rain to be south of I-10 and east of
I-35 tonight. There will be scattered thunderstorms Saturday
and Sunday, and some locations could receive 3 to 5 inches
of rain in two hours, producing localized flash flooding. However,
we do not expect a widespread flood event, and most rivers
should not rise above bankfull.

Obviously, this is a graduation weekend and many of our summer
recreation spots are getting in full gear. The main safety concerns
are for lightning (When thunder roars, go indoors) and for low
water crossings (Turn around, don't drown). Please stress with
your staff and anyone planning outdoor events to keep safety
first in mind and have a way to get weather information from
local media, the Internet, or a weather radio.

The latest and most complete information is always at our
website: http://weather.gov/austin or http://weather.gov/sanantonio
whichever is better for you to use. I have attached our latest
graphics.

-Jon

Good Grief! Over 4 inches and still raining!

2010-05-14T10:51:00.000-07:00

A quick update at 1pm.

We've had 4.05 inches of rain at my place in Helotes this morning and more is trying to form to the west of us as I type this update.

Now there's a tornado watch for areas to our west and northwest! Follow me on Facebook for quicker updates...

Mark Langford's Weather Page

5-12-10 Back in SA

2010-05-12T05:53:00.000-07:00

Well, as I expected, I ended up at the birthing zone for the terrible storms that hit the Oklahoma City area later in the afternoon on Monday. If the system had come through 24 hrs earlier, I would have been able to be in the Oklahoma City area to chase the storms, but I had to be in Lubbock to help my youngest daughter move back for the summer from Texas Tech on Tuesday. After seeing all of the destruction, I won't lose much sleep not having been in the areas where the storms hit. Some of the storms were moving at over 50 mph, so chasing was very difficult and dangerous for those that attempted it. I much prefer a stationary dry line and slowly moving supercells. The conditions were very creepy, with surface winds in western OK gusting to over 50mph.

Rain chances are still looking good for San Antonio, from Thursday night through the weekend. I have attached the latest NOAA graphics above.

Waiting in Lawton, Oklahoma

2010-05-10T09:12:00.000-07:00

It's 11am in Lawton, Oklahoma and I'm still trying to make a decision on an afternoon storm chase. Models are showing most of the sever storms will form in Central and Eastern parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. Since I have to be in Lubbock tonight, I won't be able to go eastward this afternoon. Even if I had the time, I'm not much into storm chasing where there are an abundance of trees. I like very open areas.

For San Antonio, models continue to show that our almost 30 days of dry weather, may be over. Starting on Thursday, we should see at least 5 days of good rain chances, with the best chances coming over next weekend. The latest rainfall estimates are very promising!

Not much to talk about this week...

2010-05-06T06:16:00.000-07:00

Not a lot to talk about this week, except for Saharan conditions in May. It's very odd to have dew points in the 40's this late in the season and our highs on Wednesday reflected this. At my place in Helotes, it started off in the 50's and ended up in the 90's!

A wimpy cool front will try to move through our area on Friday, but will return as a warm front on Saturday. If the front goes stationary for a while, we might see a slight chance for some thunderstorms on Friday night. Right now, computer models show the rain staying to the NE of San Antonio.

On Monday, there is a slight chance that thunderstorms will develop along a dry line in West Texas and some of them might drift far enough south to give San Antonio a chance of rain. At this time, most of the activity will stay far to the north of us. Hopefully, I'll have a chance to shoot some severe storms in the northern parts of Texas or western Oklahoma on Sunday and Monday, as I work my way up to Lubbock to pick up my daughter's dorm stuff on Tuesday. Right now, chances are looking pretty good for a scattered, but severe outbreak of super cells in the areas that I will be in.

Later next week, models are finally hinting at a change in our weather, giving San Antonio several days of good rain chances. I certainly hope it pans out...things are really getting dry again.

Rain chances are quickly going "poof"!

2010-04-30T06:28:00.000-07:00

The chances for rain early next week have gone "poof"! Our best chance for rain will be tonight through Saturday night, as a weak cool front slowly moves through our area. Most of the severe storms and heavier rain will stay far to the NE. Storm chasers will be active in Missouri and eventually Arkansas and points eastward over the weekend. Right now, this weekend doesn't look as dangerous as last weekend.

A large area of tornado watches are out this afternoon. Everything is staying to the NE of us...at this point, I'll be surprised if we get more than a tenth of an inch of rain around San Antonio in the next 24 hrs.

Warm and dry week ahead.

2010-04-25T13:55:00.000-07:00

I always say that San Antonio's Fiesta marks the beginning of summer down here and looking at the latest computer models, it appears to be right on track. We should see our first 90's this week and rain chances remain slim until late next weekend when a front pushes through. As it does, look for a chance for some more severe weather, especially to our north.

On the good side, I should be swimming in my pool for the first time this season...

Hail Reports from this morning...

2010-04-24T11:40:00.000-07:00

04/24/2010 0148 am

2 miles N of Alamo Heights, Bexar County.

Hail m1.00 inch, reported by trained spotter.

04/24/2010 0124 am

4 miles N of Somerset, Bexar County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.

04/24/2010 0125 am

6 miles N of Somerset, Bexar County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by storm chaser.

04/24/2010 0135 am

4 miles ENE of Lackland afbset, Bexar County.

Hail e0.70 inch, reported by amateur radio.

04/24/2010 0136 am

3 miles WSW of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.

04/24/2010 0145 am

Converse, Bexar County.

Hail e0.50 inch, reported by amateur radio.

04/24/2010 0147 am

Windcrest, Bexar County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.

04/24/2010 0148 am

Alamo Heights, Bexar County.

Hail e0.88 inch, reported by public.

04/24/2010 0154 am

3 miles NE of Leon Valley, Bexar County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by public.

04/24/2010 0155 am

1 miles se of Olmos Park, Bexar County.

Hail e1.50 inch, reported by broadcast media.

04/24/2010 0148 am

Alamo Heights, Bexar County.

Hail e0.88 inch, reported by public.

04/24/2010 0154 am

3 miles NE of Leon Valley, Bexar County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by public.

04/24/2010 0145 am

Converse, Bexar County.

Hail e0.50 inch, reported by amateur radio.

04/24/2010 0147 am

Windcrest, Bexar County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.

Still waiting for those severe storms...

2010-04-23T12:58:00.001-07:00

Well, round one of severe storms fell apart during the evening as a cool front went stationary during the night. At 3pm., the second upper low is moving out of far West Texas and some storms are starting to form as it moves eastward. With a stationary front to our north, a very active jet stream above us, a hot and humid afternoon with lots of sun, it should be the perfect recipe for a large squall line to form later today or tonight. I'm hoping there still might be a chance for an isolated storm to form this afternoon before the upper low moves in tonight.

As of now, all of the big storms and tornado watches have been in the northern Louisiana-Arkansas area. I really thought we would see a severe outbreak of storms to our west by now...but based on the latest modeling data, they may not come in until after midnight. I'm not much of a night time storm chaser!

3pm NOAA Update

A weak front/dryline has just about stalled across the I-35 corridor from Granger Lake down through central Hays County...down to Hondo. Along and east of this boundary the atmosphere remains very unstable. Right now there is a "lid" on the atmosphere keeping thunderstorm development at bay. As we continue to warm this afternoon...there is a chance that thunderstorms could break this lid in a couple of hours...leading to possible isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Chance of this happening is roughly 20-30%. This threat area would be mainly east of a Burnet-Boerne line. This threat will continue until about sundown, or late evening.

Then later on tonight...a strong upper level wave will move out of northern Mexico and cross the state...bringing additional lift and better chances of strong/severe thunderstorms forming somewhere near the I-35 corridor and then moving east as they intensify. This line/broken line of storms that are forecast, may form late tonight around midnight...and then exit into East Texas by sunrise on Saturday morning. Strong damaging winds and hail will be the main threats overnight. The highest severe weather threat will be areas east of I-35 and north of I-10.

We are fairly confident that if the storms form later night...they will happen mainly after midnight and over the eastern half of South Central Texas. Confidence is lower however with regards to how widespread the activity will be. In a situation like this where we have a "lid"...you could get isolated activity...or the entire lid could bust and a large squall line could develop.

For the latest information on the forecast, graphics, watches, and warnings...log onto the National Weather Service website atwww.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Severe Storm Forecast Update-3pm

2010-04-22T12:49:00.000-07:00

It's been an interesting morning watching things develop as the cool front and upper low slowly march this direction. For San Antonio, we are in the "drizzle zone" right now, with a dew point of 64 degrees. Meanwhile, out to our west, it is sunny and storms are starting to "pop" in West Texas, the Panhandle, Kansas and Colorado. A tornado watch was just issued for most of the Texas Panhandle. Looking at regional radar, there is a very strong burst of energy emerging out of New Mexico this afternoon. As that energy moves into western Texas, look for a line of very severe storms to form. I would not be surprised to see quite a few reports of tornadoes this afternoon in that region.

For San Antonio, according to NOAA, the storms will die out before hitting us tonight, then form mainly to our east tomorrow. I'm not sure I totally agree and am leaving my schedule open for tomorrow afternoon to go storm chasing to the NW or West of San Antonio in the afternoon.

Here is what NOAA is predicting:

Some good news, in that while we still expect some severe weather across portions of South Central Texas, the main ingredients to this outbreak will focus to our W and NW tonight...and to our NE on Friday afternoon/night. Tonight we expect a lot of thunderstorm activity to form late tonight (after 6pm) across portions of west Texas. These storms will march east and possibly move into the far western hill country and southwest Texas after midnight. In addition...storms that develop over the Mexican mountains...will travel east across the Rio Grande and possibly affect areas near the river like Del Rio and Eagle Pass. At this time, this activity is not expected to make it all the way into the AUS-SAT-I-35 corridor. The main threat area tonight will remain west of a line from Burnet to Eagle Pass. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

A dryline/weak cool front is expected to push through the western half of South Central Texas by Friday afternoon. This will allow additional storms to fire Friday afternoon/evening/night as a stronger upper level storm pushes through the state. A lot will depend on boundaries, residual cloudiness, and the dryline. Again the focus and best ingredients appear to be pooled to our east...but with that said, we will still carry a chance for severe thunderstorms mainly east of a line from Kerrville to Pleasanton.

I have attached the latest graphics that depict our threat areas both Tonight and Friday Night. Another update will be given tomorrow when hopefully we can be a little more specific on the timing and threat area for the Friday evening/overnight time period.

Please go to www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx for the lastest weather information including our graphics, forecasts, watches, and warnings.

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Latest from NOAA 4-21-10

2010-04-21T10:48:00.000-07:00

Things may be shaping up for some severe storms on Friday for the San Antonio area. Although they will probably be scattered, they could reach severe levels. Here is the latest from NOAA at Noon, 4-21-10.

NOAA Special Weather Statement:

We are looking at the possibility of some severe weather toward the end of the week. A large upper low over the Western U.S. will start to move into the Southern Rockies...and then across Texas on Friday and Saturday. A couple of disturbances will be coming our way, interacting with gulf moisture to create a chance for showers/thunderstorms/severe thunderstorms. Small chances of severe weather will exist late Thursday over our far western areas as some strong storms may develop along the Mexican mountains and try to cross the Rio Grande late Thu night.

A strong wave will move into the Edwards Plateau on Friday afternoon and Friday night...helping to trigger thunderstorms along and ahead of a dryline. There are many severe weather ingredients coming together across the southern plains...including a strong jet stream, a dryline, and gulf moisture. Location and severity of the storms will be highly dependent on where the dryline sets up during the day on Friday. The best chances of severe thunderstorms will be along and east of the dryline. Models are showing that the dryline will be hanging around South Central Texas during the day on Friday...then shifting east overnight as the upper wave moves across the area. I will say however, that trying to determine the placement of the dryline several days out is very difficult. For that reason...all areas of south central Texas should be aware of this storm threat and be ready for some possible severe weather Friday afternoon and Friday night. Large hail will be the primary threat...but strong damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

As the event gets closer, we will provide additional updates to better focus our threat areas and timing of the event. As of right now...that threat time appears to be from 4pm Fri to 6am Saturday. The threat shifts east during the night...into Saturday morning.

Please check out our website at www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx for additional details, forecasts, and graphics.

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Rainfall amounts and Friday Severe Weather?

2010-04-18T12:28:00.000-07:00

Fantastic day in Helotes today! Here is a map of rainfall totals from 7am on Saturday, through this morning at 7am. Graphic is from CoCoRaHS, a great organization that allows volunteers to log in their rainfall totals on a daily basis. This information is passed on to NOAA, for calculating flood warnings and drought reports. If you enjoy logging your daily weather, I would certainly recommend becoming a member.

A slight chance of some rain on Tuesday, then all eyes will be on a very strong cold front that could spawn one of the biggest severe storm outbreaks of this season. Depending on what time of the day it comes in, San Antonio could even be impacted, along with the Battle of Flowers parade. Based on current model data, it appears that the front and weather will come in before Noon, but that could easily change this far out.

Stay tuned!

Dry zone certainly went away!

2010-04-17T12:55:00.000-07:00

Well...since my last blog, we've gotten almost 2.50 inches of rain, starting with a rogue cell that developed over my house around 6pm last night and dropped almost a half inch of rain in less than 15 minutes. The biggest rain for us fell this morning, between 9 and 10am. It looks like the upper low is slowly moving out and there appears to be only one more burst of energy, as another wave moves in from Mexico later this evening. Already, radar is picking up a developing line of storms in Mexico, moving west. Thanks to a weak cool front, with some dryer air, this system tonight should be the last of the rain for a couple of days.

Around mid week, another system will give us some rain chances, and then a pretty strong front will move in on Friday afternoon giving most of Texas a chance of seeing some severe storms that will most likely form along the front. Some storm chaser friends are thinking there will be an outbreak of severe weather for north Texas and Oklahoma. We shall see...

Not much rain so far today....

2010-04-16T12:53:00.000-07:00

Seems like the Helotes area has been in a "dry zone" today as the upper level low drifts slowly to our NE. While we did gauge 1.32 over the past 24 hrs, most of that fell before midnight. Since then, we've only gotten less than a tenth of an inch of rain.

As I write this, around 3pm., there is a broken, rather anemic line of storms to our west. With the sun out and temperatures on the rise, it would not surprise me to see these grow a bit and give us a chance for a storm around sunset. As for the rest of the weekend, here is the latest from NOAA:

NOAA 3pm Storm Update

We expect scattered showers and thunderstorms
with light to moderate rain to continue through mid-evening,
then taper off except over the Edwards Plateau -- closer to
the upper low.

The slow moving upper low will be pulled northeast on
Saturday as another low moves through the southern
Plains. We expect another big round of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon, most likely for locations along and east
of I-35, including Metro Austin, Fiesta activities in San Antonio,
and the MS150 Bike race from La Grange to Austin. The main
threat time for these storms will be 2 pm to 8 pm. While no
severe weather is expected, these storms are likely to produce
more lightning than storms from the past few days.

Another 1 to 2 inches of rain will fall nearly everywhere from
this afternoon through 6 am Sunday. For the eastern Hill
Country and I-35 corridor, some locations will receive 3 to
4 inches of rain (see attached graphic). Flash flooding is
possible nearly anywhere, but most places will not have
problems. However, low water crossings are still an area
of high danger. Pending confirmation, we may have already
had a death due to driving on a flooded road. Please emphasize
to everyone that just because this is not a 1998 or 2002 event,
it doesn't mean it's not dangerous. We have some new flood
safety videos to view here courtesy of Pete Baldwin and
Travis County: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/?n=taddapr10.htm

River flooding is also occurring, and additional rainfall could make
the current expectations below change or become worse:

Devils River...Minor to Moderate Flooding though this evening.

Medina River at Bandera...Moderate Flooding...will fall below flood stage by this evening.

Upper Guadalupe River at Hunt...Minor Flooding, but will continue to fall
at Comfort...Above bankfull, but will continue to fall.

Frio River near Derby...Minor Flooding, will rise and and crest Sunday evening near flood stage.

Rio Grande...Above action stage and continuing to fall.

Lower Guadalupe River...Could rise this afternoon and Saturday from rainfall today. Not expected to reach flood stage.

San Antonio River...currently below flood stage and falling. Additional rainfall could cause rises into Saturday.

Only scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the
day on Sunday as we begin to dry out. Email Paul with rain/
flood reports and pictures, especially ones we can use for future flood
safety presentations. If you have urgent information, call our forecast
staff (numbers not given here since these emails are forwarded).

-Jon

Heavy Rain here soon...

2010-04-15T11:13:00.000-07:00

Here's the latest from NOAA at 1pm:

Sorry for the late update. A persistent band of showers
and thunderstorms will continue to move/develop northeast
this afternoon. We expect this band of rain to affect Metro
San Antonio, the eastern Hill Country, and the I-35 Corridor
as far north as Hays County (including New Braunfels and
San Marcos).

Rainfall amounts will average 1 to 3 inches with the band of
rain this afternoon, and a few spots could receive up to 4
inches of rain. This will produce minor flooding, including
low water crossings, frontage roads, and other low-lying areas.
The main impact will be during rush hour and for the school
buses. Please remind those in your organization that while
this is not a major flood event, a high level of caution should
be taken while driving. The number one rule is always:
Turn Around, Don't Drown. However, reducing speed and
leaving space between you and other vehicles will keep
accidents to a minimum.

-Jon

Rain delay in progress...lots on Thursday and Friday!

2010-04-12T14:20:00.000-07:00

As most of you have noticed by now, we are currently in a "Rain Delay" in San Antonio, with all of the moisture staying west, south and NW of us. Although we may still manage some more drizzle and a lucky "popper" in the next couple of days, it looks like the bulk of the rain will hit on Thursday and Friday, as a new system moves closer to us than the last one. Rainfall estimates are impressive if they pan out...we could see 3-5 inches from this upper low!

Rain is coming!

2010-04-10T14:06:00.000-07:00

A quick update this Saturday afternoon...looks like we will have a chance of rain for most of this upcoming week and temperatures will trend toward below average and rainfall above average for the next two weeks. I'm fine with that combo! Latest 5 day precipitation estimate has us in the 1-2 inch rain zone. I'm fine with that, too!

If you didn't get much rain, don't worry!

2010-04-07T13:40:00.000-07:00

If your backyard is like mine, it only saw about .06 of heavy drizzle this morning as the cold front moved through. A few "poppers" developed to the NW of us, but they fell apart fairly quickly. Most of the heavier rains, once again, fell to our north and east. If you're getting depressed that your nice green lawn needs some rain, fear not! The next two weeks will see below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall for most of Texas, including our area. A series of lows will start moving into South Texas starting early next week.

Meanwhile, enjoy several days of cool, dry weather, with morning lows in the mid 40's!

Very Tropical, a few storms, then chilly!

2010-04-04T06:35:00.000-07:00

Should be quite a "weather contrast" around South Texas as warm, tropical air starts off the first half of the week and cool Canadian air replaces it for the second half. High dew points of 63 degrees kept our low for today at 68 degrees...more like late May weather!

This pattern of warm, muggy, weather will continue through Wednesday, when a very strong front (lcfs rating of 358) moves down from Canada, dropping our temperatures below average (could see some low 40's) and pushing the tropical air back into the Gulf for a few days. As this front moves through, look for a line of storms to form which will hopefully give us some better rains than the last front...I only measured .02. Looking at the latest modeling data, most of the rain will stay to our north and NE, a pattern that is beginning to concern me. On a positive note, models continue to show a 3 day rain event from the 11th-13th for most of Texas, including our area. If this pans out, we could see 1-2 inches of rain from this event.

For all of you allergy suffers, including myself, this should be the last week of really high oak pollen. My oak trees are starting to drop their "stringers", which comes after pollination. Hopefully our morning drizzle and winds from the south for the next couple of days will give us all some relief. Unfortunately, when the front blows through on Wednesday, our winds will turn back into the north, bringing down more pollen from oak trees in the Hill Country, that are about two weeks behind us in pollination.

NOAA update on severe storm threat 4-1-10

2010-04-01T12:39:00.000-07:00

Based on the latest model data, I agree with this latest NOAA update from this afternoon:

The risk for severe storms has decreased for Friday,

April 2, as the low pressure system will track further to
the north across north Texas and Oklahoma. However,
isolated severe storms are still possible across the northeast
portions of our area tomorrow afternoon through early evening.

The main threat area will be along and north of Texas 71,
from La Grange to Austin to Llano. The primary threat time
will be from noon to 6 pm. The main severe threat is
damaging winds, although large hail is possible. Tornadoes
and flash flooding are unlikely.

The primary impact will be rain and wind greatly slowing
afternoon rush hour in Metro Austin, and for activities
where strong winds would be a problem (examples:
outdoor tents, temporary signs/banners).

The gusty winds and low humidity behind the cold front will
make conditions near critical for the spread of wildfires. Those
planning burning in the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains
should take that into account.

The latest information is always available at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

And a graphic depicting our expectations for tomorrow is below.

Latest from NOAA

2010-03-31T15:46:00.001-07:00

Here is the latest from NOAA on our storm chances for Friday...

A strong upper level storm system will move through portions of Texas on Friday. Rain chances will increase late Thursday night into Friday as this storm system approaches. Our current thinking is that most of the severe thunderstorm threat that will accompany this system and front will be mainly to the north and east of south central Texas. I have attached a graphic that shows our main threat area as of right now.

For those northern areas of south central Texas...mainly north of Highway 71....the threat time will be from 2-10pm on Friday. Some storms may fire before the front pushes through. Other areas of south central Texas will likely see a "cap" on the atmosphere which will limit the thunderstorm potential...keeping rain chances fairly Isolated. Any storm that would break this "cap" would likely go severe...coverage would remain isolated however. It is spring time...so be on the lookout.

We will continue to watch the models and keep you updated as best we can. Visit us atwww.srh.noaa.gov/ewx for the latest forecast and graphics.

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Could get stormy on Friday-Easter looks nice!

2010-03-29T15:42:00.000-07:00

"Spring has sprung"!

Looking at the latest modeling data, things could get stormy on Friday as a dry line and cool front move through. At the present time, we will be on the far southern end of the system, with most of the rain and storms staying to the north and NE of us (deja vu).

I am planning a short distance storm chase on Friday, but for now, most of the action looks like it will be up in Oklahoma and far northern Texas. I'm not feeling too optimistic about my chase odds as of Monday afternoon, but as we all know, things can change!

After the front goes through, the weather pattern looks pretty tranquil until the 12th or 13th, when indications are that we will have a good chance of widespread rain for a large part of Texas. Temperatures should stay near to slightly above normal through the period. Hopefully we won't slide into a dry April...I've got too many plants trying to bloom!

Iceland, Surface Stations in Australia,Chance of Thunderstorms

2010-03-23T10:24:00.000-07:00

Quite a few things to talk about this afternoon on the "Weather Blog".

First, as a cool front and upper low move across Texas tomorrow, there is a slight chance of severe storms forming, primarily to our north and NE. Some storms could be strong enough to spawn a few tornadoes and hail. Most of the rain will also stay to our NE, as shown in this latest rainfall estimate from NOAA. After that system passes, look for more great Spring weather for the rest of the week and the weekend.

This Iceland volcano could become a real "climate changer" if the second volcano erupts at the same time. Not only could it lower northern hemisphere temps, but it could pose a real health threat to the British Isles and make air travel almost impossible in the area.

Lastly, there is a great blog out today on the countless bad surface stations in Australia. These bad stations are not limited to Australia, though, we have plenty in the USA and all over the globe. That's why surface station data can not be trusted for making any kind of "global warming" assessments, from my perspective.

Australian Station Blog

Iceland's eruptions could have global consequences

Thar She Blows!

2010-03-21T13:29:00.000-07:00

Another windy day in SA, as the low pressure that brought the cold and snow to Texas, slowly moves out of this area. At my house in Helotes, we have seen a few gusts near 33 mph this afternoon. As the low finally moves out, very dry air that will rapidly cool down after sunset and put much of South Texas into a rare "Spring Freeze" by tomorrow morning. Afternoon dew points are running in the low 20's, so temperatures will be dropping possibly into the upper 20's in the low lying areas in Bexar County tonight. The only thing that might keep the temps from dropping as low, will be if the winds continue to blow late into the evening.

Once we get through tomorrow, based on every computer model I can find, it looks to me that we have seen our last freeze of the season for Bexar County, although a few more upper 30's are possible in about a week as another fairly strong cold front moves through.

I continue to have some issues with my weathercam communicating with Weather Underground, so for now, I'll just post some images from the cam on this blog. Here is an image taken this afternoon. If you look closely, you can see my neighbor riding his lawnmower in the street!

Here is some Dallas snow info from NOAA:

.. Spring snow for dfw...

Dfw Airport recorded 1.2 inches of snow on March 20th. This breaks
the previous daily record for March 20th of 0.4 inches set in 1970.
An additional 0.1 of an inch officially fell on March 21st and the
event total is 1.3 inches.

The additional 1.3 inches brings the 2009-2010 winter total to 17.1
inches. This ranks second of all time and came 0.5 inches shy of
tying the all-time record of 17.6 inches set in 1977-1978.

This snow event was unseasonably late in the year. The last time an
inch or more fell at dfw later than March 20th was when 2 inches
fell on March 29th in 1937.

Arctic Front is Here! 9:30am update

2010-03-20T07:18:00.000-07:00

Not that any of you would not have noticed it by now, but the arctic front pushed through our area around 6:30 this morning, causing a potent squall line to form along the frontal boundary. A strong thunderstorm dropped 1.3 inches of rain at my home in Helotes. Temperatures have dropped from the 60's to the mid 40's and now it has turned cloudy and very windy. Winds are forecast to gust near 40 mph today.

What's really interesting about this storm is it's strength...this is very cold air for so late in the season. Looking at radar, snow is trying to make a run for Central Texas right now. This is the latest computer snow forecast and you can see how close to San Antonio the models are forecasting snow. Very amazing! Dallas has a 40% chance of snow accumulations of up to 1 inch tonight and Sunday morning.

I will be updating this blog throughout the day...

4pm update: Lots of wind this afternoon. So far, our highest gust of the day has been 35mph. Temperatures are staying in the 40's. If the wind persists all night, we may dodge a freeze on Sunday morning.

Arctic Front On The Way! Snow In The Forecast for Dallas.

2010-03-19T14:21:00.000-07:00

What a fun way to celebrate the first day of Spring...an arctic front!

Finally, NOAA is now mentioning the possibility of a freeze on Monday morning and lows in the mid 30s with wind on Sunday morning for San Antonio.

Even more interesting, are the latest computer models that are showing a chance of snow on Saturday afternoon and evening for areas pretty close to San Antonio. Dallas now has a 40% chance of snow on Saturday night. If this pans out, I'm certain there will be records falling for latest snowfall for many of these cities in Texas.

For those of us wanting to do our Spring planting, hopefully this will be our last chance at seeing freezing temperatures this season.

Our Next Cold Front Means Business!

2010-03-18T14:08:00.001-07:00

For some strange reason, our local NOAA people are not taking this next front very seriously. Latest computer models continue to show a major dip in the jet stream and some very cold air (for this time of the year) pouring southward on Friday night and Saturday with brisk winds and moisture. This is essentially an "arctic front" in late March. In fact, one of the models shows snowfall as far south as Waco on Saturday. Meanwhile, our local NOAA forecasters are not even mentioning the possibility of freezing temperatures on Sunday or Monday morning for the San Antonio area. If the winds do not stop blowing on Saturday night and a few clouds linger, I can understand why we might stay in the mid 30's, but if it clears on Sunday and the winds go calm, I see no reason we won't get into the lower 30's or upper 20's in northern Bexar County.

Rainfall will stay mostly to our north and northeast, but we should still see 1/4 to 1/2 inch amounts by Saturday night. Another strong front will come in later next week, with another chance of rain and some more cold air. At this time, I don't think we will see a freeze, but we could see some more "30 something" lows.

Two Potential "Freeze Fronts" and 1-2 inches of Rain Coming...

2010-03-15T10:30:00.000-07:00

An upper low and some cooler air are working their way southeastward this morning after dropping several inches of snow in the mountains of Colorado last night. It's a little unusual to see upper level storms coming in from the north this time of the year...most of them tend to come in from the west. As this one gets closer, look for our atmosphere to become increasingly unstable with showers and a few small thunderstorms forming overnight and on Tuesday. We should see some 1-2 inch rains out of this slow moving system.

After this system exits, we should have more fantastic Spring weather on tap for the rest of the week, until a very strong cold front moves in on Saturday, which humorously is the first day of Spring (vernal equinox). This will be the first of two potential "freeze fronts" and the reason I have been recommending not to plant any tropical foliage until after the first week of April unless you can cover it. At this point of the week, I'm giving this front an LCFS rating of 768. About a week later, we will see the last of the potential "freeze fronts". Hopefully, then it will be safe to head to the nursery!

According to NOAA, 63 Percent of USA Experienced Below Normal Temps

2010-03-11T17:41:00.000-08:00

In a new report from NOAA, 63 percent of the United States experience below normal temperatures from December through February. And above normal rainfall was recorded throughout most of the southwest and southern parts of the country.

As we begin transitioning to Spring, I believe we will see very turbulent conditions, due to the cold winter and the continued southerly track of low pressure systems. Just the past few days have seen some fatal tornadoes already. If past history is any indicator, the best chance for tornadoes in this area is usually late March and early April, when the jet stream is still far enough south to produce the proper ingredients to form tornadoes. I may not have to go very far this year to find tornadoes if this pattern continues!

I continue to see a potentially major cold outbreak for the western states and eventually South Texas, on or around the 23rd of this month. If you are going to plant anything tropical before April 1st, I would make sure you can either bring it inside or be able to cover it. We could have two strong fronts during the last week of March and I think a very good chance of seeing a light freeze and snowfall as far south as north central Texas.

Speaking of cold, Florida had just had one of its coldest winters in over 3 decades. Read about it and the winter report from NOAA:

US Winter and February Cooler than Average

Chilly Feb. Caps Coldest Winter in 3 Decades over South Florida

Rain, freeze forecast, etc.

2010-03-07T07:10:00.000-08:00

A rather unusual cool front and upper level low are slowly moving this way from the west this morning. Unusual, because the upper low is tracking very far south, located around northern Baja California, instead of a more typical, northerly track. The system is slow moving and will cause light to moderate rain to start forming over our area during the day and evening. As this system gets closer on Monday afternoon, there is now a slight chance to start seeing our first signs of Spring supercell thunderstorms in the afternoon as our dew points rise and we get some afternoon heating. Right now, the biggest threat appears to be high winds and hail, but there could be enough instability for tornadoes. Those odds will be very slight, especially if the cloud cover does not break and temperatures remain below 70 degrees. Latest rainfall estimates from NOAA, are around an inch of rain.

Looking down the road, dry, west winds on Tuesday will warm us up into the low 80's, then another front comes through by the weekend, taking up back down to slightly below normal temperatures but mostly clear skies for the weekend. What concerns me right now is the third week of March. Computer models continue to show a strong cold front around the 20th, which could open the door for a late season freeze. That's why I would not recommend planting any tropical plants unless you have a good way of covering them, in case these models pan out.

Speaking of tropical plants, you can blame "Global Warming" for your higher priced tomatoes this Spring. Record cold temps in Florida have eliminated 70 percent of their crop.

Florida's Winter Freeze Decimates Tomato Crop

Locally, this past winter has been the 7th coldest on record for San Antonio (December-February) and the coldest February since 1978. Austin Bergstrom Airport reported a tie for the coldest February ever recorded and the 8th coldest winter for Austin and 4th coldest for Del Rio.

Because of our cold winter and continued rain, my long range forecast for this summer is also looking much more tolerable than last summer. Right now, I think we will have a "Back to the 70's" kind of summer. During the 70's, San Antonio experienced very few 100 degree days and consistent afternoon coastal showers to keep us from baking like we did last summer.

As for the hurricane season, if El Niño goes away, which it is starting to do, we could see an increase in hurricanes in the Gulf this year.

Some rain, then wind today...

2010-03-01T05:08:00.000-08:00

The upper low moved over our area last night, dropping .44 of an inch of rain at my place in Helotes.
Look for the backside of the low to usher in a cold front with some more rain and lots of wind this afternoon.

USA temperature increase being inflated...

2010-02-26T13:53:00.001-08:00

In a new study, just released by Dr. R. Long, increases in USA temperatures are being "over-inflated" by the National Climatic Data Center. When Dr. Long used RAW data and compared temperatures from the start of the 1900's to now, he found a large difference in urban and rural sites, due to the "heat island effect".

It has been my contention for a long time, that rises in recorded temperatures have been polluted by thermometers that are being impacted by quickly growing urban centers. San Antonio is a perfect example...our official thermometer is located on the runway of our international airport. Not only is there a lot of concrete from the runways, but San Antonio International is surrounded by two major highways (Loop 410 and Hwy 281) and large streets, such as Broadway, Wetmore and Bitters.

In a nutshell, rural temperatures have changed very little over the past 100 years.

Below is a link to the study:

CONTIGUOUS U. S. TEMPERATURE TRENDS USING NCDC RAW AND ADJUSTED DATA FOR ONE-PER-STATE RURAL AND URBAN STATION SETS

Record cold and snow hits Russia

2010-02-23T11:23:00.000-08:00

I dedicate my blog from today to Al Gore, who's blog today blames "Global Warming", or as he likes to call it, "Climate Change" on our snowy and cold winter for most of the country. He also mentions those extreme hurricanes that will be on the increase...just like last year, eh Al? Funny how he doesn't mention natural cycles like El Niño in his blog. The graphic to the left is from Wikipedia and accurately illustrates this winter. Nor does Al mention that Europe and Asia are having extremely cold winters throughout most of the continents. Last year, "Climate Changers" were blaming Global Warming on a lack of snow in the SW and our warm winter. They also failed last year to mention we were in a La Niña pattern...

Meanwhile, Russia has been setting some snow records and almost set the coldest temperature ever recorded in Europe.

Here are the links:

Russia's Pole of Cole hits -70 degrees F...second coldest ever recorded in Europe

Moscow Sees Record Amount of Snow

Latest Helotes Snow Update 11:30am

2010-02-23T06:56:00.000-08:00

At 11:30 am it is snowing in Helotes!

Noon Update: Now that the upper atmosphere has finally chilled, our moisture has diminished a bit. Hoping for more this afternoon.

1pm Update: Snow is starting to fall in Del Rio, to the west of us as the upper low pulls out of Mexico. There is a band of snow moving our direction from the west. As the low moves through, look for snow to start falling by 3pm and last for 1-2 hours. After that, most of the snow will be over as the low passes to the east of us.

4pm Update: Poof! Dryer air filtered in and evaporated our last chance for snow this afternoon. I saw a few anemic flurries, but that was all.

Snow chances are increasing despite warm day.

2010-02-22T05:35:00.001-08:00

I know it's hard to fathom, but despite getting into the low 60's today, we actually have a great shot of seeing enough snow to cover our yards and cars outside.

As the night progresses, our winds will get stronger out of the NE, ushering in colder air and later, clouds. As we awake tomorrow morning, some light rain will start falling as a strong upper low drifts over us from the NW. By noon, we should start seeing sleet, and by afternoon through midnight, we should see mainly snow. Because it was so warm today and yesterday, driving should not be a problem until late tomorrow night, when we get very close, if not below, freezing. I'm a little worried about the Wednesday morning commute.

Above is the latest graphic from NOAA.

Based on the latest precipitation forecasts I'm seeing, I think we could see 1-3 inches of snow, with only 1/2 inch-1 inch accumulation tomorrow night.

Either way, it would be the first time in decades that we have seen snow cover our yards in San Antonio.

9pm update...now we have a 90% chance of snow in the afternoon!

Hmm...shall I really say it again?

2010-02-20T10:13:00.000-08:00

I know you are all saying, "here he goes again with the snow forecast".

Even though we are nearing the end of February, and statistics are against us, those darn forecast models and some very cold air from Canada are giving me optimism for a potential snow event on Tuesday night of next week. At the present time, it looks like we have a chance for 1-2 inches of snow, and since it will be falling at night, a fairly good chance it might stick around for a few hours on Wednesday morning.

As usual, areas just north of us have a really good chance for snow, including the Texas Hill Country. This will be a fairly quick event, so snow amounts won't be very high.

What's amazing about all of this is that we are even talking about snow chances to begin with, this late in the season. We are now less than 30 days from Vernal Equinox, which is usually a safe time to start planting for Spring. The way things are going this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see freezes going late into March.

On another note, our drought is officially over! The Express-News ran a great article earlier this week. Here are two links from it:

Two Year Texas Drought Ends

Drought Graphics from 2009

Lots of "Anti Global Warming Articles" Today

2010-02-15T12:29:00.000-08:00

Once again, we are having another "below normal temperature day" today in San Antonio. This late in February, our average high should be near 70 and our low should be in the low 40's. After a freeze last night, we are struggling to get out of the mid 50's and will be back to the lower 30's by tonight and possibly the upper 20's.

I have posted the latest 8-14 day forecast from NOAA. As you can see, we will be trending below normal for almost the rest of February.

Below are several "Anti-Global Warming" articles from today's news sources.

The Snow Line is Moving South

Steven Goddard 2-15-10

World May Not Be Warming, Say Scientists

Times Online 2-14-10

Surface Temperature Records: Policy Driven Deception?

by Joseph D'Aleo and Anthony Watts

Climategate Academic Professor Phil Jones Admits he "Lost Track" of Vital Data

2-15-10 Telegraph.co.uk

Winter is not giving up anytime soon!

2010-02-13T14:26:00.000-08:00

After a slightly warmer day today and almost hitting 70 on Sunday, a strong front will move down Sunday afternoon, putting us very close to freezing, with strong winds on Monday. Monday night we should see lows in the upper 20's, with a slight rebound the rest of the week. Late in the week, moisture returns and yet another strong cold front moves down on Friday or Saturday. With my dismal track record this year forecasting snow, I won't mention that we could see yet another chance for frozen precip by next weekend. Unfortunately, since we will be in our third week of February, our snow chances for San Antonio are quickly evaporating...

Speaking of snow, one model has consistently shown snow flurries for us on Sunday night a few hours after the arctic front moves in. Nothing this year would surprise me!

Rainfall Records from NOAA

2010-02-11T17:40:00.000-08:00

Since we didn't get any of the snow that I predicted, I'll take the safe route and share some NOAA rainfall reports released this afternoon...

This past five month period, September-February, has been the second rainiest September-February in San Antonio, since records have been kept. San Antonio has almost received a year's worth of rainfall in only 5 months. Pretty amazing when you stop and think how we went through one of the worst 2 year droughts in our history. Here are the top 4 rainiest September-Februarys so far. Don't forget, we are only halfway through February.

1. September 1875 through February 1875: 31.71 inches of rain

2. September 2009 through February 2010: 30.70 inches of rain

3. September 1991 through February 1992: 28.73 inches of rain

4. September 1967 through February 1968: 28.33 inches of rain

One more wave of rain and a tiny chance of snow

2010-02-11T14:14:00.001-08:00

Nice to know I wasn't totally off on my prediction last night. Here is the latest graphic, released about 30 minutes ago from NOAA. As expected, the upper low will throw some cold air aloft and give the area dotted in the graphic, a chance for seeing some snow.

On radar, there is a fairly heavy band of rain, sleet or snow approaching us from the west at 4:15. If we don't see a few flakes with this band, that will probably be it for this round. We may even see a sunset tonight. Meanwhile, Dallas really saw a lot of snow and is expecting even more tonight. They are currently in a winter storm warning and may get up to 7 inches of snow with this system.

At this time it appears we will go into a dry pattern for several days, with a strong front moving in on Sunday afternoon. In fact, we could see some light freezes on Monday and Tuesday with this cold front. Our next chance for some frozen precipitation will be around the 20th, but that is still too far off to get excited about. Also, as we go past the middle of February, it becomes increasingly difficult to see snow around here, due to us being so darn close to the equator!

Hmm...so,now what?

2010-02-10T16:06:00.000-08:00

OK, I realize that it is over freezing and that the odds of it snowing in the next 24hrs is pretty remote now. So, what happened? Well, for starters, the cold air that came down a couple of days ago was not as cold as forecast by the models. Secondly, the sun came out yesterday and warmed us up to 50 degrees. Although we were clear for most of last night, we did not get down below freezing as had originally been forecast. On top of that, the clouds thinned during the day and allowed us to warm up to over 40 degrees. We did have some "BB" size sleet for a few minutes this morning for a little fun.

Hmm...so, now what? Well, the good news at my place in Helotes, is that we have already cooled down into the upper 30's, now that the sun is going down. Secondly, our winds continue to blow from the NE, which is keeping the air chilled. And, most importantly, our dew point in Helotes is still 5 degrees below freezing, which means that the air will cool rapidly if moisture starts falling soon. Lastly, the upper low will track very close to our area, with cold winds aloft. If we can even get into the low to mid 30's, we might still have a chance of seeing some snow around here. It might not stick, but would still look great. I rate our odds at about 20% that this will happen. More than likely, we will see some more sleet and of course, the ever so boring, cold rain!

I am reminded of a snow event that took place about 38 years ago in Comfort, TX. At the time, my family had a small ranch there and the weather was almost identical to tonight's weather. It was above freezing and snow was not even mentioned. My friends and I (Jon Johnston and John McClenny) were playing night volleyball and not paying attention to the light drizzle that was coming down. Anyhow, we all went to bed around midnight and to my surprise as I went outside to use the crude, outdoor, bathroom facilities around 3am, huge snow flakes began to fall. I mean, huge! Some of the flakes were as large as half dollar coins. In just over 4 hours, we ended up with almost 5 inches of snow.

Sunshine not a friend to snow chances...

2010-02-09T14:13:00.000-08:00

So, on the positive side, I was able to do a photo shoot today that I didn't think I'd have a chance to shoot, due to clouds. That's actually a big positive, since sunshine has been in such short supply lately.

Now the negative side...for all of us wanting to see some snow in the next couple of days, our high temperature of over 50 degrees didn't exactly help those odds. Now we have to hope the clouds come in late tonight so that our dry, cool air moves the thermometer down into the lower 30's. With San Antonio's luck, the clouds will come in early, while the temps are their highest, making our lows in the upper 30's or lower 40's.

So, here is my latest thinking...if the clouds stay away most of the night and allow the temps to get near freezing, because of the abundant moisture on the way and cold air aloft, I still think we have a shot at some snow, sleet or ice on Wednesday and Thursday. If the clouds come in close to sunset and the temps stay in the upper 30's, then a "Seattle Pattern" will kick in, giving us a cold, nasty rain throughout the period.

On a different note, a new blizzard will be drifting through Washington, DC overnight, adding to their woes. Meanwhile, it hasn't stopped the Obama Administration from announcing today they created a new "Climate Change" website!

2 Fronts, snow, sleet and freezing rain!

2010-02-08T09:49:00.000-08:00

OK...here we go!

I've been reviewing the latest forecasts, modeling data and snow cover for the United States and I'm convinced we will see snow, sleet and freezing rain in San Antonio, starting on Wednesday and possibly going through Friday.

With 62% of the country now under snow cover and an arctic front making it's way southward tonight, it would not surprise me to see us stay at or below freezing from Tuesday night through Thursday or Friday. Because most areas to our north are under snow right now, this will preserve the cold air moving into South Texas tonight, making the air colder than current forecasts and models are indicating. The snow factor will also keep the cold air depth deeper, allowing a better chance for snow, starting on Tuesday night and Wednesday. The precipitation chart above shows forecast rainfall amounts on Wednesday. If this pans out in the form of snow, we could see 2-3 inches of the white stuff. Another upper level low moves in on Thursday. At this time, forecasts are for the high pressure to move to our east just enough to keep the precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain. If the high pressure does not move out as anticipated, we could see half a foot of snow on Thursday, based on precipitation forecasts. Actually, this scenario would be better for traffic and potential downed power lines if the precipitation falls as rain.

Here's how I see things progressing:

This afternoon, front #1 will move through, switching our winds into the north and giving us a chance for a small thunderstorm or two. Later tonight, the arctic front will move in, dropping temps into the lower 30's with high winds and a low wind chill on Tuesday. At this time, we may see enough sun on Tuesday to take us into the 40's for a high. Later on Tuesday, clouds will thicken as moisture starts moving over the high pressure from the Pacific. That's when things start getting interesting. A small upper level low will move in on Wednesday, giving us a good chance for snow on Wednesday morning and afternoon. Then, a stronger system moves in on Thursday and Friday. That's the one that could deliver either heavier snow or ice. My LCFS rating for the arctic front is 878. For an explanation on this system, please go to www.myweatherpage.com

Front #1 came through Helotes around 2:45 this afternoon. We got .13 inches of rainfall this morning and when the storm came through with the front.

2.46 inches for Helotes

2010-02-04T17:26:00.000-08:00

Over the past 48 hours we've gauged 2.46 inches of rain in my backyard in Helotes. I was surprised this afternoon, while returning home from the Medical Center, when a heavy downpour hit me near Huebner and Bandera Rd. It got so bad that I was getting a little concerned about getting flooded out. At noon, NOAA had dropped our chances to 20% and were only calling for light rain. This was not light rain!

I was just checking the forecast for Baltimore, where my nephew lives, and this system is forecast to move toward the NE and drop 2-3 feet of snow. I always love it when the "Capital of Climate Change" gets buried in snow. It amuses me up to picture our current administration, which lectures to anyone who disbelieves Anthropogenic Global Warming, having to shovel themselves out of a blizzard.

All of the models continue to show a very good chance for snow or ice next week and a second chance for frozen precip the following week.

At least 2 good chances for snow

2010-02-03T16:10:00.000-08:00

Long term forecasts and latest modeling data suggest at least 2 good opportunities for the San Antonio area (and most of central and south Texas) to see snow and or ice in the next two weeks. Our first chance will be next week as an arctic front slides down on Monday night. As it does, we could see a slight chance for ice or snow when it moves in, but the best chance will be Wednesday through Friday of next week as two disturbances move in from the SW. Then, about a week later, we will see yet another arctic front and almost the same scenario play out, based on the latest models.

How about that Global Warming!

Meanwhile, rainfall today in Helotes has been very close to 2 inches, with more on the way...right on with my forecast of 2-3 inches from a couple of days ago.

1.18 Of Rain-Snow Odds Increasing

2010-02-03T06:09:00.000-08:00

Our 8am storm total is 1.18 inches from last night through this morning. As everyone has noticed, it's still raining and will be doing so for at least another 24 hours. A slow moving upper low will drift our way from Mexico and will pull out of South Texas late tomorrow.

Next week is looking "very interesting"! Arctic air will invade us again on Monday night, giving us a chance of frozen precip on Tuesday morning. Our best chance, though, will come on Wednesday, as an upper low moves into South Texas while the arctic air is still in place. That looks like our best chance of the winter season so far for snow or ice.

Wet Weather Just Around the Corner!

2010-02-02T14:34:00.000-08:00

An upper level low will move across South Texas in the next 24-36 hrs, giving us a great chance of seeing 2-3 inches of more rain. It's amazing to me how weather patterns can so dramatically change...this time last year we were begging for drizzle!

By Friday, sunshine will be back again for 48 hrs until, yet another, low pressure and a very strong cold front move into our area. As this front moves down, I think we will have a pretty good chance of seeing some snow or ice on Monday night through Tuesday. Later next week we could see another round of cold air and possibly our second chance of ice or snow.

Meanwhile, take care if you have to drive around tomorrow...it will be a great "body shop" day!

2010-02-01T11:11:00.000-08:00

Latest NOAA 5 day precipitation forecast still has our area in the 2-3 inch rain zone. Looks like a "Seattle" kind of week, with cool temps and very wet weather ahead until Friday. After a dry weekend, another big system hits us in about a week. This one still has a chance of coming in with some cold air, although the latest models are beginning to show more of a rain event than an ice or snow event. We should know more in the next couple of days.

December was the 14th coldest December for the United States in 115 years. Good ol Global Warming!

14th Coldest Winter in 115 Years

Record cold in Florida kills reef coral

Worst Forecast So Far This Year!

2010-01-31T08:24:00.000-08:00

So, at 1pm in Helotes it's now finally gotten one degree over 32, but is still cloudy and cold outside. The original forecast from this morning, was for "Mostly Sunny" skies and highs in the mid 50's! Definitely the worst forecast so far for 2010.

Meanwhile, a parade of upper level lows will be marching across our area this week, giving us cloudy skies and possibly up to 3 inches of rain. Too bad the cold air will be moving out...that would be lots of snow!

Speaking of snow, it looks like our next chance will be around the 8th-10th of February. Our "window" for snow usually closes by the 3rd week of February, so this may be our last shot of seeing some frozen precipitation for this season.

One of my favorite websites to track problems with "Global Warming", released their weekly update. If you get a chance, read about all of the things that have transpired this week, including more trouble with the IPCC.

The Week That Was (January 30, 2010)

Brought to you by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)

Cold, wet and windy in Helotes

2010-01-29T06:36:00.001-08:00

That arctic front finally made it into our area overnight, dropping temperatures from a high of 64 degrees at midnight, to our present low of 39 degrees in Helotes. With the light rain and wind, it's a bit on the "bone chillin" side out there.

The image I have posted shows the huge area of "Winter Storm Warnings" this morning across the central and eastern parts of the country...a pretty messy day for many people.

Our 24 hour rainfall total of .75 is not as much as was originally advertised by NOAA. Most of the storms and heavy rain tracked to our north last night. We only managed to get moderate rain and as far as I know, no thunder or lightning during the night. Certainly, no hail.

We should see some clearing later today, followed by a freeze tonight and possibly on Sunday night. Sunday may be our last chance to see the sun for almost a week, as a parade of El Niño storms comes marching across the south next week.

Still a threat of severe storms...

2010-01-28T12:23:00.000-08:00

Here is the latest severe storm graphic, just released from NOAA. They still think a severe line of storms will develop between 5pm and 2am tonight as an upper low drifts across and a cold front pushes through our area from the north. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center is concerned about areas just to our west and may issue a severe thunderstorm or a tornado watch soon. I will update my site as these watches develop.

Meanwhile, my daughter has been enjoying the 3-4 inches of snow that fell in Lubbock this morning. Click here for details.

As of 3pm. a tornado watch has been issued for counties to our west and northwest.

Rain chances increase, cold air chances decrease

2010-01-27T13:40:00.000-08:00

Latest forecast suggests that much of the arctic air and the heaviest rain will slide to our northeast with this system. One thing of interest is the chance of severe storms on Thursday afternoon. Right now the Storm Prediction Center has us down for a "Slight Risk" for severe storms on Thursday...most likely hail and high winds. Unfortunately it looks like frozen precipitation will stay in the Panhandle and far North Texas.

Long term, the chances of more arctic air have "sublimated" for the next two weeks and have been replaced by a very wet pattern during that time. El Niño is certainly making a comeback, after an absence during most of December. For skiers, California, Arizona, New Mexico and southern Colorado will be receiving copious quantities of the white stuff. It should be a fantastic Spring Break ski season this year.

Arctic air on track for Thursday Night...

2010-01-26T05:54:00.000-08:00

After another nice day, our weather will quickly cloud up and warm up tonight as an arctic front approaches our area on Thursday night. Rain odds will also be going up as an upper level low moves to the north of us during the day on Thursday. We could even see some severe thunderstorms in our vicinity.

As usual, the upper low will be moving out as the arctic air moves in, so chances of snow are fairly low for our area, although there could be some flurries in the Hill Country on Friday morning. Best odds of snow will be in the panhandle and north Texas.

Another strong front will move down on Tuesday, followed by a wet first week of February. Too hard to know if the cold and the moisture will combine right now. My early vibes are that the moisture will not return until the coldest air starts moving out. More than likely, we will end up the first week in February feeling like we live in Seattle...cool and wet.

The third batch of arctic air looks to be arriving during the first weekend of February.

Enjoy the warmth...winter is about to come back!

2010-01-21T16:48:00.000-08:00

Just when you thought it was safe to run around in shorts, reality is about to return next week in the form of several cold fronts, including an arctic one.

Looking at the latest modeling data, it appears that we will get front #1 on Sunday which will put us back in the normal temperatures for January. Then, possibly because I have two outdoor shoots planned for Wednesday and Thursday, we will see lots of clouds and a chance for rain on those days. By Thursday evening, we should start seeing the first of possible 3 "arctic visitors" over the next two weeks. Our best chance for snow will be the first week of February, when arctic front #2 and #3 move down our way. As usual, it's too early to tell how much or if moisture will actually fall when the temperatures fall below freezing.

California residents should be happy with this change in weather patterns...arctic air over us gives them similar weather to what we've been having today and tomorrow.

Stay tuned!

Yucky Tuesday....

2010-01-19T06:18:00.000-08:00

As can be the case around here, when our weather turns warmer than normal in the winter, it usually means lots of fog and drizzle, due to our close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico. A "whimpy" Pacific front moves through on Wednesday night, hopefully clearing our skies on Thursday and Friday so I can work on an important exterior assignment in the Hill Country.

After a couple days of Spring, we should get a more powerful cold front on Saturday afternoon, giving us a slight chance for some storms along the front, then some fairly cool temps and most likely a couple of freezes for Monday and Tuesday mornings next week. Later next week we get a good chance of rain and possibly some arctic air by the first week in February.

Meanwhile, more heavy rain in the west for the next several days.

Systems will bypass San Antonio

2010-01-18T09:48:00.000-08:00

As you can see from my last post, the systems out west will bypass Texas, for the most part. We may see a squall line form on Saturday or Sunday as a cold front and upper level disturbance move a little closer to us. Looks like mild weather through Saturday, then more seasonal cold by Sunday and Monday of next week.

Long term models are looking very interesting for the first couple days in February...if these pan out, we will certainly have a great shot at snow.

West Coast and Deserts will be flooding!

2010-01-18T09:39:00.000-08:00

Wow! These 5 day rainfall totals forecast for the western part of the country are insane! Predictions of up to 11 inches in Southern California and 9 inches for the deserts of Arizona. It this pans out, we will be seeing lots of "Mudslide and Flooding" footage in the next couple of days...

Here is the 5 day Forecast Link from NOAA

Rainfall reports from COCORAHS

2010-01-16T14:13:00.000-08:00

.. Public information statement...

An upper level storm system moved across south central Texas over
the last few days and brought heavy rain to parts of the area.
Here is a list of the highest reported rainfall totals in each
County in our County Warning Area for the period 13-16 January.
These reports are from the cocorahs network. All reports are in inches.

Atascosa Leming 5.32 (highest in cwa)
Bandera Bandera 3.2w 2.08
Bastrop Rosanky 2.8wnw 2.36
Bexar Castle Hills 0.7nnw 3.82
blanco blanco 6.8sse 3.09
Burnet Marble Falls 8.6ese 2.75
Caldwell Luling 6.9nw 2.73
Comal timberwood park 7.7ene 3.10
De Witt Yoakum 6.2wnw 2.81
Dimmit Carrizo Springs 3.0nne 1.30
Edwards Camp Wood 4.1nw 0.87
Fayette Flatonia 3.3ne 2.38
frio Pearsall 7.9nnw 2.06
Gillespie Fredericksburg 13.1sw 1.71
Gonzales Shiner 5.2wnw 2.95
Gonzales 3.8sw 2.95
Guadalupe Kingsbury 0.5s 2.92
Seguin 3.3sw 2.92
Hays San Marcos 7.1w 3.32
Karnes Runge 2.3nnw 2.27
Kendall Boerne 13.6nne 5.10
Kerr Comfort 1.7s 2.03
Kinney Brackettville 1.2sw 0.19
Lavaca Hallettsville 12.4se 3.76
Lee Lexington 6.7s 0.95
Llano Horseshoe Bay 2.7s 1.59
Maverick Eagle Pass 14.9nnw 1.36
Medina Hondo 6.9sse 2.63
real Camp Wood 9.6ese 1.91
Travis Tanglewood Forest 2.9e 2.72
Austin 3.9nne 2.72
Uvalde Camp Wood 11.3ese 1.80
Val Verde del Rio 5.7nw 1.25
Williamson Cedar Park 1.0ese 2.56
Wilson Elmendorf 5.6ene 2.97
Zavala all locations T

The following are from our four climate sites.

Austin Camp Mabry 2.29
Austin Bergstrom 2.11
San Antonio 3.58
del Rio 1.20

Founder of the Weather Channel Speaks out on Global Warming

2010-01-16T13:35:00.000-08:00

John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel, and still works as a TV meteorologist for KUSI in San Diego recently completed a 5 video series called, "Global Warming: The Other Side". Great material and well worth the watch.

Global Warming: The Other Side

Storm total of 3.13 inches in Helotes

2010-01-16T07:34:00.000-08:00

Make sure your cameras are working...with this last batch of rain, I can safely say we will have one heck of a Spring this year! Bluebonnet plants are coming up everywhere on my lot in Helotes. Once March gets here, they should put on a great show.

Meanwhile, San Antonio will feel like Spring is already here this week, with temps hitting the 70's and lows in the 50's. Looking down the road, computer models are not showing any chances of another major cold outbreak for the rest of the month. I find that hard to believe with all of the snow pack and continued very cold temps in Canada and Alaska. I think this will change within a week.

With the 3.13 inches of rain this week, our yearly total is now at 3.44 inches, much above average for January. I much prefer this pattern over our 2 year drought!

25 Years Ago this week!

2010-01-15T12:26:00.000-08:00

I know I'm a couple of days late on this one, but "What were you doing 25 years ago this week?". If you were living in San Antonio like I was, here is what you were doing...

San Antonio's 13.5 inch Record Snowfall in 1985

Still raining at Noon....

2010-01-15T10:07:00.000-08:00

We've gotten another half inch of chilly, windblown rain this morning, bringing our storm total to 2.50 inches in less than 24 hrs. Still looks likely that we could get 1-2 more inches of rain before the system moves out tomorrow.

2 inches and counting....

2010-01-15T05:53:00.000-08:00

As of 7am this morning, our storm total is right at 2 inches for Helotes. San Antonio set a record one day rainfall total for January 14th of 1.49 inches...breaking the old record of 1.06 inches set in 1889.

As the upper low parks over the Brownsville area for about 12 more hours, look for more rainfall, especially to the south of us. Even though the low is pretty far to our south, it would not surprise me to see an additional 2 inches in the next 24 hours before the low moves out.

Next week appears to be fairly mild, with a slight chance of rain during the middle of the week and highs around 70 degrees. Our next chance for some cold weather looks to be around the 26th or 27th, with a chance of wintry precipitation. Still too far out to tell for sure yet...

Precipitation graphic courtesy of COCORAHS. I recommend joining their organization.

Best Climategate article I've read...

2010-01-14T18:41:00.000-08:00

This is the best "Climategate" article I've read yet...

Climategate: Leaked Emails Inspired Data Analyses Show Claimed Warming Greatly Exaggerated and NOAA not CRU is Ground Zero

(Preliminary introduction – final much more complete report will be found here and on SPPI shortly)

By Joseph D’Aleo

NOAA issues Flash Flood Watch 3pm CST

2010-01-14T13:27:00.000-08:00

Statement as of 2:55 PM CST on January 14, 2010

... Flash Flood Watch in effect from 6 PM CST this evening through
Friday evening...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Texas...
including the following counties... Atascosa... Bandera...
Bastrop... Bexar... blanco... Burnet... Caldwell... Comal...
DeWitt... Dimmit... Fayette... frio... Gonzales... Guadalupe...
Hays... Karnes... Kendall... Kinney... Lavaca... Lee... Maverick...
Medina... Travis... Uvalde... Williamson... Wilson and Zavala.

* From 6 PM CST this evening through Friday evening

* a January heavy rain event is forecast to begin tonight and
continue through Friday. A strong storm system over the
southwest U.S. And north central Mexico is forecast to move over
south Texas Friday and Friday night. Most of the rain is
expected to fall from tonight through 6 PM Friday. There will be
a continued chance of rain and showers on Friday evening. Storm
total rainfall amounts from 2 and 3 inches to near 5 inches are
expected in the Flash Flood Watch area... with isolated amounts
near 6 inches.

* Since the vegetation is thinner in a mid January setting and
evaporation is less during the winter months... these type of
rains may cause flooding at low water crossings... in low lying
areas... on small creeks and streams... and on flood prone streets
in urban areas.

Heavy Rain here soon...

2010-01-14T09:28:00.001-08:00

Heavy rain will be moving into our area late this afternoon and especially tonight and on Friday. Rainfall totals could easily be 3-5 inches from this storm system. This could be the system Medina and Canyon lakes need to give them a much needed boost in lake levels. With very little evaporation this time of the year, this is the best time for adding water to the lakes.

Meanwhile, lots of fog this morning in Helotes, where temperatures and dew points are in the lower 50's.

I will be posting any updates from NOAA as they are released.

Latest on potential heavy rain event from NOAA

2010-01-13T13:52:00.001-08:00

Here is the latest rainfall graphic from our local NOAA office. Most of the rain will fall from Thursday night through Friday.

So far today, 0.26 inches of rain in Helotes.

2009 Weather Summary from NOAA

2010-01-13T10:37:00.000-08:00

Statement as of 12:15 PM CST on January 13, 2010

... 2009 weather summary...

Year 2009 was a transition year when extreme drought persisted
through August followed by more rainfall from September to December.
It was also a year when milder weather for most of the year ended
with much cooler conditions from November 30th to December 31st.

The winter of 2009 was very dry and mild for a winter setting.
December 2008 to February 2009 was a tie for the 7th warmest winter
period for San Antonio with 1922 to 1923 and 2005 to 2006... the 8th
warmest at Austin... and the 13th warmest at del Rio. In January 2009
a brief winter precipitation event came the night of January 27th to
the early morning of January 28... 2009... in a similar pattern to the
December 9th to early morning of December 10... 2008 event. In
February a severe weather event came the evening of February 9th
to the early morning of February 10th... 2009... when severe
thunderstorms brought hail and strong winds.

As the storm track came further south in March of 2009... more rainfall
developed from March 10th to March 31st. Beneficial rains fell from
March 11th to the morning of March 15th... as a cold front stalled
across the region. Some places received more rain from this event
than in the total 6 month period from September 2008 to February
2009. A stretch of colder than usual weather came during the day of
March 11th and continued to the 14th.

In late March of 2009 several severe weather events affected the
area... bringing strong winds and hail... from showers and
thunderstorms on March 25... March 26... and March 31... 2009.
As April came the first half of the month was more like fall and
winter... with fast moving cold fronts... bringing several days of
below normal temperatures... and a few windy days. The windiest day
came April 2nd... when winds gusted to between 40 and 50 mph. The
second half of April brought more rain and severe weather events.
More rain with showers and thunderstorms came during the day of
April 17th and again on the 18th... with very heavy rains over the
East Part of south central Texas... where flooding occurred. Some
areas over the East Part of south central Texas in Lavaca...
Fayette... and eastern Gonzales counties received between 15 and 20
inches of rain rom April 17th to the 18th. This heavy rain event
ended on Saturday afternoon April 18th.

As may began... very warm Summer like conditions persisted in the
early part of the month. Del Rio experienced the warmest day of the
year... when the high was 107 on may 6th... and Uvalde had 108 on may
8th. Beneficial rains came with showers and thunderstorms along a
strong cold front on may 16th... that left several pleasant days from
may 17th to the 21st. Warmer weather returned in late May.

June of 2009 was dry for a June setting. A severe weather event came
June 11th... when showers and thunderstorms moved across Llano...
Burnet... Williamson and Travis counties... producing strong winds and
hail. Another Summer severe weather event came July 30th... when
a line of thunderstorms brought high wind gusts to south central
Texas. The pace of hot days picked up in June 2009 and continued
throughout the Summer. The Summer of 2009 was the hottest Summer of
record for Austin... del Rio... and San Antonio. July 2009 was the
warmest July and overall month on record at Austin Mabry and at
San Antonio. July 2009 was the 3rd warmest July at del Rio. August
2009 was the warmest August at Austin Mabry. August 2009 tied with
2006 for the warmest August at San Antonio... while at del Rio August
2009 was the 2nd warmest August. The most 100 degree days for the
year came to Austin Bergstrom... 55 100 degree days... and at San
Antonio... with 59 100 degree days. Austin Mabry with 68 100 degree
days in 2009 had the 2nd most 100 degree days in a year... while
del Rio with 65 100 degree days had the 4th most 100 degree days for
a year in 2009.

August 2009 ended a very dry 2 year period for the area. The driest
non-overlapping 2 year period of record from September 2007 to
August 2009 was observed at San Antonio... with only 24.83 inches of
rain... far below the 2nd driest of 30.23 inches from August 1954 to
July 1956 and 3rd driest of 30.41 inches 100 years ago from October
1908 to September 1910. At Austin Mabry it was the 3rd driest
non-overlapping 2 year period of record with 35.23 inches of
rain... after the driest 2 year non-overlapping period of 33.87
inches from October 1916 to September 1918 and 33.96 inches from
January 1954 to December 1955.

When September and October came... rainfall amounts jumped
significantly. A wetter weather pattern emerged September 4th and
continued for the rest of the year... improving drought conditions.
The most rain fell in September and October. This brought several
brief flash flood events. A few September flash flood events
occurred. The heaviest rain came on Friday September 11th to
Saturday September 12th... when 19.42 inches of rain fell near
Jarrell in Williamson country. Another flash flood event came in
early October. The heavy rains of 5.42 inches at San Antonio on
October 4th was the 14th wettest calendar day of record at
San Antonio. On the afternoon of October 21st to the night of
October 21st and early morning of October 22nd... heavy rains fell
over parts of Burnet County... eastern Llano County and over northern
Blanco County. This left 6 to 9 inches of rain. The fall of 2009
was the 5th wettest September to November at San Antonio since
1871... the 12th wettest at Austin since 1856... and the 54th wettest
at del Rio since 1906. Most of the rain in the fall came in
September and October... followed by a few days of heavy rain in
November. The faster pace of weather systems in December caused
rainfall amounts to decrease from what was observed in the fall.

After mild weather for most of November... much colder conditions
came the night of Sunday... November 29th to Monday November 30th.
The colder than usual conditions persisted through most of December
2009. December 2009 tied for the 15th coolest December at Austin
Mabry with December 1865 since 1854... tied for the 4th coolest at
Austin Bergstrom with December 1989 since 1942... was the 8th coolest
December at San Antonio since 1885... and tied for the 13th coolest
December at del Rio with December 1976 since 1905.

Like April 2nd... 2009... windy conditions followed a fast moving cold
front on December 24th... 2009 leaving wind gusts to near 40 to
near 50 mph... along with colder temperatures. A few snow flurries
accompanied this event in the morning to the early afternoon over
Gillespie... Llano... Burnet... Williamson... northwest Travis... and
blanco counties. Later in December another mixed precipitation event
came... with snow flurries reported over The Hill Country the morning
of December 29th. Cold rain was briefly mixed with sleet from
San Antonio to Austin on the morning of December 29th... 2009.

The coolest decembers at Austin... del Rio... and San Antonio are
listed below.

The coolest decembers at Austin Mabry from 1854 to 2009 follow.

1. December 1859 40.9
2. December 1983 41.9
3. December 1898 42.9
4. December 1876 43.4
5. December 1989 44.3
...
15. December 1865 and 2009 47.5... 4.6 degrees below normal.

The coolest decembers at Austin Bergstrom from October 1942 to 2009 follow.

1. December 2000 43.9
2. December 1983 45.3
3. December 1963 45.5
4. December 1989 and 2009 46.1... 6.8 degrees below normal
5. December 1997 47.5

The coolest decembers at San Antonio from 1885 to 2009 follow.

1. December 1983 43.0
2. December 1989 43.4
3. December 1963 45.7
4. December 1914 46.3
5. December 2000 46.4
6. December 1898 47.4
7. December 1909 47.8
8. December 2009 48.3... 4.1 degrees below normal
9. December 1905 48.5
10. December 1944 48.9

The coolest decembers at del Rio from 1905 to 2009 follow.

1. December 1989 44.3
2. December 1983 44.6
3. December 1914 45.6
4. December 1963 45.8
5. December 1905 46.4
...
12. December 2009 49.0... 3.4 degrees below normal.

The warmest highs... coldest lows... average yearly temperature... and
rainfall for 2009 are listed below. The departure from the 1971 to
2000 normal for the average yearly temperature and yearly rainfall
are also listed.

Location warmest day coldest low average 2009 temperature/2009 rain
departure from 1971-2000 normal

Austin Mabry 106 Jun. 25 25 on Dec. 5 70.5 +2.0 31.38 -2.27
106 Jun. 29
106 Jul. 8

Del Rio 107 may 6 27 on Dec. 5 71.6 +1.9 12.96 -5.84

San Antonio 104 Jun. 29 23 on Dec. 5 71.0 +2.3 30.69 -2.23
104 Jul. 5
104 Jul. 8
104 Jul. 9
104 Aug. 23

year 2009 was the 5th warmest year at Austin Mabry from 1854 to 2009...
the 6th warmest at del Rio from 1906 to 2009... and the 6th warmest year
at San Antonio from 1885 to 2009. After the warmest Summer... much
cooler conditions came in September... and this set the tone for a
cooler fall. The milder conditions for most of November... ended
quickly with colder weather in December of 2009.

"Mini Me" Low moving out...time for the Big One!

2010-01-13T10:20:00.000-08:00

As the small upper low moves out of the San Antonio area, look for just some very light drizzle and fog until the "Big Bad Upper Low" moves across our area on late Thursday through early Saturday. Based on the latest computer forecast models, it looks like we have a real shot at setting the all time 24hr rainfall record for San Antonio of 2.72 inches, set on January 18th, 1968. I think 3-4 inches of rain between Thursday and late Friday is a real possibility.

Speaking of records, I will be writing about record highs and lows and how they don't mean much for proving "Global Warming". I'll try to get that blog out later today or tomorrow.