Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Front and possible rain on the way!

Here is a statement from our local NOAA office at 10:30am.

An upper level disturbance located over the TX and OK panhandles will be moving south overnight. In addition, a weak cool front over northwest Texas will be sagging south during the day and will try to push into the Hill Country by late this afternoon. These factors, along with very hot temperatures, will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to form to our north and northwest later today. Upper level winds will then track these storms across portions of South Central Texas later this evening and overnight. There may be a few isolated showers/storms late this afternoon over the far northwest portions of the area...but the main threat time will be from 9pm-4am.

Dry air is in place across the region. Because of this storms will have a higher likelihood of producing damaging wind gusts. Winds of 50-60 mph can be expected with the strongest storms as they move south. This wind should be enough to cause small clusters of minor wind damage including trees down, power lines down, etc. Some small hail is also possible but is not the main threat. The greatest threat area will likely be along and west of I-35 including the Hill Country. Models show this activity to continue to move south during the night and affect areas of the Rio Grande from Eagle Pass up to Del Rio. The activity will remain scattered overnight...so many areas will likely remain dry.

The weather pattern is shifting a bit toward the weekend/next week where we will see a better influence from the Gulf. That in turn usually means higher humidities, and at least small chances of rain. It also means putting an end to many of the triple digit temperatures.

Please look for the latest forecasts, watches, warnings, and advisories on our website at www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Friday, August 20, 2010

Changes ahead...

August is my least favorite month for weather in San Antonio, but one of the good things about the searingly hot month is that the last week is normally the beginning of a slow, but real transition into Fall. As most of you know, our definition of Fall is different than up north. For San Antonio, Fall usually means less intense heat and increasing chances for moisture. The first signs of that change should arrive during the middle of this week, when we may see our first "not so hot" front dive far enough south to break down the "Hell High", giving us a good chance of rain for several days. If the Hell High abates, look for a more tropical pattern, similar to what we were experiencing during the first half of the summer. That will not only lower our temperatures, but increase the chances of seeing some tropical systems in the Gulf. Hopefully those systems will stay weak and not cause any major damage, but with the Atlantic and Gulf water temperatures running above normal, the chances of several major hurricanes forming in September look very good.

Image in the upper left corner is the forecast front on Wednesday afternoon.