Thursday, October 28, 2010

Super Dry October

I have not recorded any measurable rainfall in Helotes this month.

This was just posted from our local NOAA office
:

Statement as of 3:47 PM CDT on October 28, 2010


... October 2010 has so far been one of the drier octobers of record...

After the 2nd wettest September at Austin Mabry and the 6th wettest
September at San Antonio... October of 2010 is shaping up to be one
of the drier octobers at Austin... del Rio... and San Antonio.

So far October 2010 through today has been the 3rd driest October at
Austin Bergstrom since October 1942... the 5th driest at Austin Mabry
since 1856... a tie for the 3rd driest October at del Rio since
1906... and a tie for the 8th driest October at San Antonio since 1871.
The forecasts through Sunday the 31st show that no rain is expected
for south central Texas.

The list below shows the driest octobers of record at Austin...
del Rio... and San Antonio.

Austin Mabry has had 0.08 inches of rain from October 1st through
today. This makes October 2010 so far the 5th driest October at
Austin Mabry since 1856. The list below shows the driest octobers
at Austin Mabry.

1. 0.00 October 1893
2. Trace October 1952
3. 0.02 October 1947
4. 0.03 October 1934
5. 0.08 October 1 to 28... 2010

Austin Bergstrom has had 0.06 inches of rain from October 1st through
today. This makes October 2010 so far the 3rd driest October at
Austin Bergstrom since October 1942. The list below shows the driest
octobers at Austin Bergstrom.

1. 0.00 October 1952
2. 0.01 October 1947
3. 0.06 October 1 to 28... 2010
4. 0.21 October 1987
5. 0.33 October 1955

Del Rio has had 0.01 inches of rain from October 1st through today.
This makes October 2010 so far a tie with October of 1915 and
October of 1931 for the 3rd driest October at del Rio since 1906.
The list below shows the driest octobers at del Rio.

1. 0.00 October 1917 and 1979
2. Trace October 1950 and 1952
3. 0.01 October 1915... 1931 and October 1 to 28... 2010
4. 0.04 October 1955
5. 0.06 October 1909... 1970 and 1980

San Antonio has had 0.17 inches of rain from October 1st through
today. This makes October 2010 so far a tie with October of 1943
for the 8th driest October at San Antonio since 1871. The list
below shows the driest octobers at San Antonio.

1. Trace October 1952
2. 0.03 October 1898
3. 0.07 October 1939
4. 0.08 October 1893 and 1950
5. 0.11 October 1979
6. 0.12 October 1901
7. 0.13 October 1938
8. 0.17 October 1943 and October 1 to 28... 2010

Friday, October 1, 2010

Rainfall Totals for September

My 6.54 inches of rain recorded in my backyard seems puny compared with other parts of the area. Here is a statement from NOAA on September rains:

... September 2010 was one of the wetter septembers at
Austin and San Antonio...

September 2010 was one of the wetter septembers at Austin and San Antonio.
Rainfall from a cold front late September 2nd to the early morning hours
of September 3rd was followed by scattered showers the afternoon
of the 6th and rains associated with Hermine the 7th through the
8th. Additional rain came from isolated showers the weekend of
September 11th and 12th to Tuesday the 14th... and more widespread
rain showers from Friday the 17th through Sunday the 19th.
Scattered daytime to early evening showers brought more rain on
Monday the 20th through Saturday the 25th... and isolated early
morning showers came with a cold front the morning of the 26th.
The rest of the month from the 27th to the 30th was dry.

Rainfall for September 2010 was the 2nd wettest September at
Austin Mabry... the 13th wettest at Austin Bergstrom... and the
6th wettest September at San Antonio. September 2010 was not one
of the wetter septembers at del Rio. Rainfall at del Rio was 2.06
inches in September of 2010... equal to the latest 30 year
1971 to 2000 average.

The list below shows the wettest septembers at Austin... del Rio...
and San Antonio.

The wettest septembers at Austin Mabry from 1856 to 2010 are listed below.
The 1971 to 2000 normal at Austin Mabry is 2.91 inches... while the
historical 1856 to 2010 average is 3.51 inches.

1. 20.78 September 1921
2. 13.20 September 2010
3. 12.78 September 1874
4. 12.33 September 1886
5. 10.54 September 1873

The wettest septembers at Austin Bergstrom international Airport from
1943 to 2010 are listed below. The 1971 to 2000 normal at Austin Bergstrom
for September is 2.88 inches... while the historical 1943 to 2010 average
is 3.29 inches.

1. 9.36 September 1986
2. 8.82 September 1957
3. 8.80 September 1958
4. 6.98 September 2009
5. 6.50 September 1967

13. 5.15 September 2010

The wettest septembers at San Antonio International Airport from 1871 to 2010
are listed below. The 1971 to 2000 normal for San Antonio is 3.00 inches...
while the historical 1871 to 2010 average is 3.36 inches.

1. 15.78 September 1946
2. 13.09 September 1973
3. 11.71 September 1874
4. 11.16 September 1967
5. 11.10 September 1957
6. 9.37 September 2010

The wettest septembers at del Rio from 1906 to 2010 are listed below.
At del Rio 2.06 inches of rain fell in September of 2010... equal to the
latest 1971 to 2000 normal. The historical 1906 to 2010 average
rain in September at del Rio is 2.50 inches.

1. 15.79 September 1964
2. 9.95 September 1932
3. 9.87 September 1970
4. 9.74 September 1919
5. 7.07 September 1991

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Tropical this week...more "Fallish" next week!


On this first full day of the Autumnal Equinox, I thought I'd reassure everyone that more fall like temperatures are only a few days away. The persistent tropical air mass and a stubborn jet stream to our north has been keeping us in the "Florida" mode for the past several weeks. On a positive note, we have had a great September as far as rainfall goes. This is important because we will be quickly entering a La Nina winter pattern, which typically is dry. So far, my backyard in Helotes has measured almost 6 inches of rain in September. As the first real cool front nears us on Sunday, look for an increase in rainfall chances, with a few thunderstorms developing along the front. After the front passes, computer models are showing dew points in the 40's and 50's for most of next week. I would not be surprised to see some of our lows drop into the 50's!

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is becoming concerned that Mathew may be about to form in the Caribbean today or tomorrow. This could be trouble for Florida early next week as the cool front pushes the storm in that direction.

Monday, September 20, 2010

September Rain totals from NOAA

So far, in my backyard, we've received 5.52 inches of rain in September. Latest 3 day storm total has been 1.14 inches.

Here is the latest rainfall update from NOAA on 9-19-10:

.. September 2010 has become one of the wetter septembers at
Austin and San Antonio...

the first 19 days of September 2010 has brought one of the wetter
septembers to Austin and San Antonio. Rainfall from a cold front
late September 2nd to the early morning hours of September 3rd
was followed by scattered showers the afternoon of the 6th
and rains associated with Hermine the 7th through the 8th.
Additional rain came from isolated showers the weekend of
September 11th and 12th to Tuesday the 14th... and more widespread
rain showers from Friday the 17th through Sunday the 19th.

Rainfall for the first 19 days of September shows that September 2010
is so far the 4th wettest September at Austin Mabry... the 15th
wettest at Austin Bergstrom... and the 8th wettest at San Antonio.
With 11 more days left in September... the final figures for
September 2010 will change.

The list below shows the wettest septembers from the past compared
to the rain that has come from September 1st to 19th of 2010.

At Austin Mabry so far in September 2010... 12.19 inches of rain
has fallen. The wettest septembers at Austin Mabry from 1856 to
2009 are listed below.

1. 20.78 September 1921
2. 12.78 September 1874
3. 12.33 September 1886
4. 10.54 September 1873
5. 9.70 September 1859

At Austin Bergstrom international Airport so far in September
2010... 4.75 inches of rain has fallen.

The wettest septembers at Austin Bergstrom from 1943 to 2009 are listed
below.

1. 9.36 September 1986
2. 8.82 September 1957
3. 8.80 September 1958
4. 6.98 September 2009
5. 6.50 September 1967

at San Antonio International Airport so far in September 2010... 8.90
inches of rain has fallen.

The wettest septembers at San Antonio from 1885 to 2009 are
listed below.

1. 15.78 September 1946
2. 13.09 September 1973
3. 11.71 September 1874
4. 11.16 September 1967
5. 11.10 September 1957
6. 9.21 September 2003
7. 8.95 September 1882
8. 8.87 September 1896

The scattered showers the past few days have brought brief wind
gusts to the area.

Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms moving across south
central Texas today produced brief wind gusts around 30 to 39 mph
in the afternoon.

Peak wind information from a few airports across south central Texas
from the scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday
September 19th are listed below.

Pleasanton... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .23 mph
New Braunfels Municipal Airport... ... ... .35 mph
Randolph AFB... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..23 mph
San Antonio Stinson field... ... ... ... ... .26 mph
San Antonio International Airport... ... ..39 mph
Austin Bergstrom international Airport... 33 mph
Austin Camp Mabry... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 28 mph
del Rio International Airport... ... ... ... 28 mph

--

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Rainfall totals from Hermine


It's been a very interesting past 24hrs around here, due to Tropical Storm Hermine. As most of you know by now, the storm passed directly over Bexar County around noon on Tuesday the 7th, dropping lots of rain and giving the San Antonio Airport wind gusts to 60mph. At my place in Helotes, winds stayed in the 30's. Rainfall totals have been impressive for most of our area and I have posted some latest graphics with this posting. For my backyard, we've had just over 4 inches, but that total is actually much less than most of Bexar and surrounding counties as you can see by the graphics I have posted from Weather Underground. We missed the big rains last night and are currently missing a "Rain Train" that has developed within a few miles of here, extending from near Hondo, through Fair Oaks and all of the way to north of Austin. This line of storms has moved little in the past 5 hours!

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Hermine moving more northerly now...less rain, more wind!


This is what I was worried about....the latest update on Hermine from our local NOAA office:

Hermine made landfall late last night just south of Brownsville...and is currently tracking north across south Texas. Current position is near Alice where they are getting tropical storm force wind gusts near 50 mph. The storm is moving slightly to the right of the current forecast track.

The track of Hermine will take the storm north during the day, crossing near the San Antonio area by 1pm. The storm continues to move north at 17 mph. This has allowed the storm to keep its strength a little longer than earlier anticipated. Because of this, am introducing some possible wind impacts across the far southern areas of South Central Texas over Atascosa, Frio, and Karnes Counties. Across these counties, tropical storm force winds of 40 mph are possible, with some gusts up to 50 mph. These winds could start as early as 9am...and last several hours through early afternoon. These winds may be strong enough for some minor wind damage and power outages. Will have to watch this closely as wind impacts could move farther north into the San Antonio area. Gusty conditions will prevail elsewhere across South Central Texas during the day with winds forecast of 25 to 35 mph...some gusts as high as 50 mph in the heavier rain bands.

Because of the fast movement and track of the storm, we are scaling back our total rain forecast, especially over western areas. I have attached the latest graphic with our thinking of rainfall potential. 3-5 inches mainly east of a Kerrville to Pearsall line, 1-3 inches west of this line. We can still get some isolated totals in the 8-10 inch range...but my confidence of this is going down because of Hermine's fast movement.

East of the forecast track...the threat of isolated tornadoes will remain. Tornado watches will likely be in effect for portions of the day. The small tropical tornadoes typically occur in the strongest storms/rainbands. This threat area will be mainly east of 281 late this morning and afternoon as storms intensify. The tornado threat will lower tonight as the storm moves out of our area.

So as a recap...the threats are changing. Wind threat will increase through this morning over the southern half of South Central Texas as Hermine moves quickly north. Damage is being reported in Jim Wells County. Widespread flash flood threat is decreasing. Flash flooding will still likely occur in some locations, but overall rain amounts should be lower than originally anticipated due to Hermine's fast movement to the north.

For the latest watches, warnings, and advisories....check our website atwww.srh..noaa.gov/ewx

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Monday, September 6, 2010

Latest from NOAA-6pm


Here is the very latest from our local NOAA office about Tropical Storm Hermine:

No major changes from our earlier updates on the heavy rain event that is forecast over the area on Tuesday. Already today we are starting to see the moisture surge into the coastal plains of Texas ahead of Hermine. This will likely continue over the next 36 hours as Hermine makes landfall, and then tracks northward up into the western Hill Country by Tuesday night.

The track of Hermine has been fairly steady during the day...making landfall tonight south of Brownsville...and then moving steadily north northwest overnight. By early afternoon Tuesday, the center of the weakening system will be just east of Eagle Pass...and then be near Uvalde by 7 pm Tuesday evening.

Since Hermine has sped up...I am updating our target window of highest threats to include 10am-10pm on Tuesday for most of the area. Its during the late morning, afternoon, and evening on Tuesday that south central Texas will likely see its heaviest rains. Areas over the western and northern Hill Country will see the threat time expand several hours past midnight early Wednesday morning.

Widespread rains of 2-5 inches are possible...with blinding tropical downpours and rain rates of 1-3 inches per hour. This will likely cause flash flooding in some areas and is why we have a Flash Flood Watch out until noon on Wednesday. As bands of rain set up and move north through the area, there is the possibility of some isolated rain totals near 12 inches. Flash flooding is the #1 weather related killer. Take precautions now. There will likely be flooded roads somewhere in South Central Texas by this time tomorrow. Heed warnings and dont drive through low water crossings. As the system moves north into the Edwards Plateau after midnight early Wed morning, our heavy rain threat will lower. Only residual flooding on creeks, streams, and rivers will likely remain on Wednesday.

As we saw in Dolly...areas to the right of the tropical cyclone's track could see isolated tornadoes develop in the strongest showers/storms/rainbands. Be on the lookout for these small tornadoes as they will occur very quickly and with little warning. The pockets of damage are usually fairly small and isolated, but can bring additional tree and structure damage.

A wind advisory has been issued for most areas of South Central Texas with gusty winds of 20-30 mph expected on Tuesday. By far, the main threats with the system remain the heavy rainfall and isolated tornado threat.

Please see the latest forecast, watches, warnings, and advisories on our website at
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin San Antonio TX
--

Here comes Hermine!


Here is the latest info from NOAA on Tropical Storm Hermine...

Overnight, Tropical Depression #10 strengthened a bit and is now officially Tropical Storm Hermine. Hermine is forecast to remain a tropical storm before she makes landfall early Tuesday over northern Mexico just south of Brownsville. I have attached the latest track of Hermine.

This means the heavy rain threat will continue for South Central Texas through at least mid day on Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of South Central Texas starting midnight tonight and lasting until Noon on Wednesday. As Hermine makes her way onshore, Gulf moisture will spread north into the region. This rainfall will start as early as today along the southern coastal plains and continue through Wednesday as the storm moves across southern areas of Texas and into the Hill Country by Wednesday afternoon.

The main threat for our area will be the heavy rainfall. The 24hr time frame from Noon Tue to Noon Wed appears to be the time for the highest likelihood of flooding...with Tuesday night still possibly being a bullseye for flooding somewhere in our area. Flood events very often happen at night during tropical events. Rain rates of 1-3 inches per hour will likely lead to flash flooding across the region with widespread rain totals of 2-5 inches expected....isolated higher totals of 5-10 inches in a few spots. I have attached a graphic from our office showing the threat area. I have also attached a graphic showing the region-wide rainfall potential. Remember that Flash Flooding is the number one weather related killer.

As Hermine gets better organized over the next 24 hours, this will spread a small tornado threat into south central Texas over the next 48 hours. Typically we will see the highest threat area to the right of the landfalling track. These tropical tornadoes come with little warning as they usually remain fairly small and can last for generally less than 10 min. They can bring small pockets of damage like we saw with Dolly in 2008.

Rain chances will decrease by Wednesday night and Thursday as the main circulation will be moving north into the southern plains out of our area. Please keep up to date on the latest forecast track of Hermine and our Flash Flood potential by going to our website at www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

Stay safe and alert.

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Almost no rain in August, watch out for Gaston and a "not so hot" front on the way!


For more timely updates please see my postings on Mark Langford's Weather Page.

For the entire month of August, only 0.12 of rain fell at my place. The lack of rain and the high temps have extremely stressed my yard and pocketbook for the watering I'm doing just to keep my plants alive. La Niña is definitely back!

Gaston has formed this afternoon out in the Atlantic...this one bears watching since some of the models are taking him into Florida and possibly the Gulf.

I now have some new employees working for my weather page...


An early season "not so hot" front will limp through our area tomorrow night, giving us a chance for some scattered showers. So far, in my backyard, I've gotten the scattered part of the showers instead of the showers!

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Front and possible rain on the way!

Here is a statement from our local NOAA office at 10:30am.

An upper level disturbance located over the TX and OK panhandles will be moving south overnight. In addition, a weak cool front over northwest Texas will be sagging south during the day and will try to push into the Hill Country by late this afternoon. These factors, along with very hot temperatures, will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to form to our north and northwest later today. Upper level winds will then track these storms across portions of South Central Texas later this evening and overnight. There may be a few isolated showers/storms late this afternoon over the far northwest portions of the area...but the main threat time will be from 9pm-4am.

Dry air is in place across the region. Because of this storms will have a higher likelihood of producing damaging wind gusts. Winds of 50-60 mph can be expected with the strongest storms as they move south. This wind should be enough to cause small clusters of minor wind damage including trees down, power lines down, etc. Some small hail is also possible but is not the main threat. The greatest threat area will likely be along and west of I-35 including the Hill Country. Models show this activity to continue to move south during the night and affect areas of the Rio Grande from Eagle Pass up to Del Rio. The activity will remain scattered overnight...so many areas will likely remain dry.

The weather pattern is shifting a bit toward the weekend/next week where we will see a better influence from the Gulf. That in turn usually means higher humidities, and at least small chances of rain. It also means putting an end to many of the triple digit temperatures.

Please look for the latest forecasts, watches, warnings, and advisories on our website at www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Friday, August 20, 2010

Changes ahead...


August is my least favorite month for weather in San Antonio, but one of the good things about the searingly hot month is that the last week is normally the beginning of a slow, but real transition into Fall. As most of you know, our definition of Fall is different than up north. For San Antonio, Fall usually means less intense heat and increasing chances for moisture. The first signs of that change should arrive during the middle of this week, when we may see our first "not so hot" front dive far enough south to break down the "Hell High", giving us a good chance of rain for several days. If the Hell High abates, look for a more tropical pattern, similar to what we were experiencing during the first half of the summer. That will not only lower our temperatures, but increase the chances of seeing some tropical systems in the Gulf. Hopefully those systems will stay weak and not cause any major damage, but with the Atlantic and Gulf water temperatures running above normal, the chances of several major hurricanes forming in September look very good.

Image in the upper left corner is the forecast front on Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Rain chances are diminishing


I haven't written any new weather blogs in a couple of weeks because there hasn't been much to talk about. July is generally a dry month and this one is living up to its reputation, except for the abundance of humidity!

This afternoon, the second of 3 tropical waves is moving into South Texas, where they don't need the extra rain. So far, San Antonio has been limited to a few short lived "random poppers", which have avoided my backyard like the plague! After Saturday, our rain chances quickly evaporate into the July sunshine and according to the latest info at 4pm, the Hurricane Center thinks the depression in the Caribbean will move into Louisiana, putting San Antonio on the dry and hot side of the system.

Fortunately, it's still early in the tropical season and hopefully some "light duty" storms will work their way into our area before we slip into another drought. Speaking of drought, it is looking as though La Niña is about to re-emerge in the Pacific again. If so, look for a dry and moderate winter for this upcoming season. For more info, click here.

Thursday, July 8, 2010


So far, the rains from tropical depression #2 have been pretty scant around my place in Helotes today. My 12 hr. storm total is 0.09.

NOAA is still thinking we will see some heavy rain overnight. Below is their latest thinking:

Here is a brief update and the outlook for tonight and Friday.
The remnants of TD#2 will continue to move west-northwest
just south of the U.S-Mexico border in the Lower Rio Grande
Valley tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread
across Texas. We expect quite a few locations to receive
1-2 inches of rain tonight through Friday afternoon, with
some locations receiving up to 6 inches, especially across the
Rio Grande Plains.

There may be minor flash flooding anywhere in our area where
1-2 inches of rain falls in a short period of time. The Flash Flood
Watch has been extended areawide through Noon on Friday.
However, the main threat will be continued major flooding along
the Rio Grande.

Our latest briefing graphic is attached, and of course, all the latest
weather and river information is available on our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/austin

-Jon Zeitler
NWS Austin/San Antonio

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Flooding situation to the west


Here is the latest from NOAA on the horrific flooding going on to the west of San Antonio. Rainfall amounts in Mexico have been over 20 inches and more may be on the way.

NOAA 7-6-10:

It has been several days now since Alex made landfall...but the moisture over central and northern Mexico continues to produce huge rainfall totals in the mountains just west of Del Rio and the Rio Grande River. Additional rains are ongoing and will add to the already incredible totals that are being estimated by radar...upwards of 15-20+ inches in an area roughly the size of New Jersey. I have attached an image showing the estimated totals over the past 7 days. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until at least 7 am Tuesday for Val Verde, Kinney, and Maverick Counties.

These large rainfall totals have led to major flooding along the Rio Grande from areas just northwest of Del Rio...down to Eagle Pass. The current heavy rain will produce even more runoff and we are expecting to have this flood event continue for the next several days at least. The inflow into Lake Amistad near Del Rio has led to an incredible 15 foot rise in the lake since Friday. As a result, large amounts of water will be released from the Dam and will lead to flooding downstream. The latest IBWC press release can be found here...
http://www.ibwc.state.gov/Files/Press_Release_070510.pdf

What worries me is that satellite images show a stream of moisture moving northward from
southern Mexico all the way north into the Big Bend...with no real end in sight. As long as we keep this moisture tap flowing north, the heavy rains will continue over the river basins that flow into the Rio Grande.

This is becoming a very dangerous situation. Another tropical wave near the Yucatan is forecast to approach northern Mexico or portions of Texas by mid to late week. This in fact could spread even more moisture into northern sections of Mexico and lead to even more rainfall.

Please monitor the latest forecasts, watches, and warnings by going to the National Weather Service website at www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx
River/lake
stages and flood forecasts can be found at the AHPS website :
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ewx
and a quick briefing webpage from the West Gulf River Forecast Center can be found at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/HMDmain.php

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Sunday, July 4, 2010

Happy 4th...update from NOAA


As some of you might know by now, the remains of Alex are causing heavy rain and flooding to the west of San Antonio. Here is the latest update (Noon-7-4-10) from NOAA:

Moisture from what was Hurricane Alex continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms over the mountains of Mexico and portions of West and Southwest Texas. Radar estimates that there has been 20+ inches of rain in a large area to the west and southwest of Del Rio over the last several days. Most of this area drains into the Rio Grande and has led to flooding along the River in spots and some of its tributaries. More recently in the past 24 hours, more of this moisture has moved north and is affecting the western 2/3rds of Val Verde county where currently flash flooding is occurring mainly west and northwest of Del Rio. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Val Verde county until Monday morning as several more inches of rain are possible across this area of Val Verde County. People and residents, as well as holiday travelers, campers, etc need to be aware that this is a dangerous situation across this area of Southwest Texas and everybody needs to take appropria
te precautions to stay out of harms way. Camping in and near creeks, rivers, and streams during this time is very dangerous and should be avoided.

As the rain continues across this area...we will see an increasing threat for significant flooding along the Rio Grande over the next several days....this includes areas of Val Verde, Kinney, and Maverick counties. I have attached the latest graphic from the West Gulf River Forecast Center showing this threat area.

Across other areas of South Central Texas today and Monday...scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible especially in the afternoon hours. It shouldnt be enough to cancel plans, but everybody should be prepared for a passing shower/tstorm. Brief heavy downpours are possible.

Please keep updated to the latest Flash Flood Watches, Warnings, and River Flood Warnings by going to the National Weather Service website at www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx
and to the AHPS webpage at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ewx

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Friday, July 2, 2010

Latest from NOAA 2pm-7-2


Looking at radar at 2:20 pm., it is starting to fill in with lots of red as tropical "poppers" make their way toward San Antonio. With an abundance of moisture in the form of ridiculously high dew points, some heavy rain appears to be eminent. My storm total in Helotes so far is 1.5 inches.

Here is the latest from NOAA:

The rich tropical atmosphere is very apparent as soon as you step outside. This is leading to the widespread showers and thunderstorms that are moving across most areas of South Central Texas early this afternoon. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 pm tonight...and will likely be extended until 7 am Saturday. Only minor flood issues are ongoing across some areas of South Central Texas as the storms are moving fairly quick at 30 mph and rain rates have averaged under 1 inch per hour. But as the afternoon progresses and some areas get additional showers/storms to train over the same areas, the threat for heavier rain and flooding will increase. Widespread rains of 1-2 inches are possible with isolated totals near 4 to 5 inches.

There will be a lot of people on the road later today trying to get a jump start on their holiday weekend...so please be careful and Turn Around Dont Drown. Dont risk driving through the flooded roadways and low water crossings. Many will be staying at camp grounds next to or along creeks, streams, or rivers. These areas are particularly dangerous during these heavy rain events. And as we saw several weeks ago with the flood in New Braunfels and in Arkansas...flooding at night can be particularly deadly. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and the National Weather Service website for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories.... www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

The heavy rain from Alex over northern Mexico is draining into the Rio Grande and is leading to some moderate flooding just above Lake Amistad. Areas near and along the Rio Grande should pay particular attention to the weather and forecasts of the Rio Grande as well as other areas rivers and creeks. They can be monitored from the following website...http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ewx

As the holiday weekend quickly approaches...scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours will occur again on Saturday, with roughly a 40-50 percent chance for rain mainly in the morning through evening hours. On the 4th of July, will still carry a 30-40% chance of rain...with chances dropping to near 20% by the time of fireworks Sunday evening. There is fairly high confidence that the overall coverage of rain activity will be much less on Sunday afternoon and evening.

Be careful this holiday weekend, the wet conditions will make driving hazardous and rivers/creeks will be flowing quickly.

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin San Antonio TX
--

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Latest from NOAA


I've gotten 3/4 of an inch of rain in my backyard today...hoping for more. According to the latest long range forecasts, it looks like a good chance for wetter than normal conditions for the next two weeks. Here is the latest from NOAA:

Bands of light to moderate rain continue this afternoon across much of South Central Texas. Overall rain totals across most of the area have generally been less than one half inch...with higher totals over 1 inch south and east of San Antonio. The threat for locally heavy rain will continue tonight and into Friday as rich tropical moisture continues to move into the area. For this reason the Flash Flood Watch has been extended for most of South Central Texas until 7 am Friday morning. I have attached the graphic of the latest rainfall forecast. Over the next 48 hours...some areas south and west of Austin may receive an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain...isolated totals possible near 4 inches. There remains a low to moderate flood threat along the Rio Grande as moisture from Alex produces heavy rain over Northern Mexico and is forecast to track north into West Texas over the weekend. Northern areas of South Central Texas will likely receive less rain...averaging 1-2 inches.

These bands of showers and thunderstorms can and will produce torrential downpours at times...with hourly rain rates of 1 to 2 inches. This will cause ponding of water on roads, localized flooding in urban areas, and some creeks and streams may fill or even overflow. Drivers need to be aware of possible flooded low water crossings.

Rain chances will slowly decrease through the holiday weekend...but with daytime heating and plenty of tropical moisture in place, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast. The scattered nature of the storms however should mean that there would be only minor interruptions to outdoor activities. Still, the weekend storms may still produce 1-2 inches of rain in some isolated spots. Rain chances go down to around 20% by Sunday night.

Keep informed of the latest weather information by going to the National Weather Service website at www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

3pm NOAA Update on Alex Impact


I'm devoting my blog to the latest update from our local NOAA office in regard to the impacts from Alex:

Alex continues to slowly strengthen and is making a path toward deep South Texas and extreme northern Mexico. Ahead of this tropical system...easterly and northeasterly flow to its north is pulling in copeous amounts of moisture from the northern Gulf. This moisture, combined with a weakness aloft and daytime heating will continue to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next 24 hours ahead of Alex. This activity has the potential to create locally heavy rain with some isolated Flash Flooding concerns. Some of these storms may have rain rates on the order of 1-2 inches of rain per hour...enough to cause problems in low lying areas as well as urban areas.

As Alex makes landfall to our south by late Wednesday...even more moisture will push onshore and make it into South Central Texas. It appears that the main threat from this system will be locally heavy rain and possible flooding. I have attached the latest graphic showing the rainfall estimates that are forecast by our meteorologists. 3 to 4 inches with some isolated totals of 6 inches or more are generally forecast for southern areas of South Central Texas. As the center of Alex is forecast to be well south of the area, we do not expect to have sustained tropical storm force winds...Breezy conditions of 15-30 mph may occur generally south of line from Del Rio to San Antonio to Cuero. The strongest winds 20-30 mph will likely occur Wednesday night with some slightly higher gusts. These forecast wind speeds can also be found on the graphic. However, with any thunderstorm, there is a threat for gusty winds of 30-40, maybe as high as 50 mph.

Any sort of Tornado threat appears to be small. If we do get a threat for small tropical tornadoes, this threat would likely occur Wed night or Thursday as rain bands from Alex rotate west and northwest into the area. This would mainly impact southern areas of South Central Texas.

If the remnants of Alex head west as forecast, we will continue to see a threat of heavy rainfall through Friday. The threat may in fact then turn into a river flood threat for areas along the Rio Grande River near Eagle Pass and Del Rio. I have attached a 2nd graphic showing this threat as well.

Overall, the threat for South Central Texas appears to be mainly heavy rain...with some southern areas getting isololated totals of 6 inches or more over the next several days. Stay informed by going to the National Weather Service webpage www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx and monitoring the latest forecasts and tracks of Alex.

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Monday, June 28, 2010

The Latest on Alex...


The Hurricane Center has just released their 4pm update...they are shifting Alex to the south of where they were this morning, putting its landfall about 60 miles to the south of Brownsville. That would lower our rainfall chances, but since we will be in the right hand quadrant as it moves inland, it should give us some decent rainfall. There are still some models taking it to the north of that track...we shall see.

Meanwhile, the rare summer cool front is just to the NW of San Antonio, on a San Angelo to Abilene line. Along and to the south of the front isolated storms are forming this afternoon, but as of now, none have wound up in my backyard...just dry and hot in Helotes. Between the dying front and tropical storm Alex, I still think our chances for several inches of rain this week look good.

One of my favorite sites for tracking hurricanes is Stormpulse. Nice graphics!

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Where oh where will Alex go?

Late this afternoon, tropical depression Alex was almost finished traveling through the Yucatan peninsula and is about to move into the SW Gulf of Mexico. According to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, Alex should redevelop into a tropical storm, then a category one hurricane, before moving NW into near Tampico,Mexico on Thursday. If that occurs, San Antonio will have to rely on a very rare "summer cool front" to move close enough to us to deliver some much needed rainfall. Even with a wet Spring, highs in the 90's tend to bake our vegetation around here and it does not take long to quickly move into a dry and brown landscape.

Here's where it all gets interesting...most of the time, by now, the "spaghetti" computer plots as they are known, start combining into a pretty narrow field of where a tropical system is going. With Alex, because of the rare cool front moving toward Texas and a fairly strong trough to our NE, several major computer models continue to bring Alex much closer to San Antonio. The GFS takes it into Houston, the HWRF into Corpus and the GFDL and NAM take it into Brownsville, which would all lead to some potentially big rains for south Texas. I'm leaning toward the models that take Alex near Brownsville...we shall see.

No matter what happens, it should be an exciting weather week around here...especially for this time in the summer, when it is normally pretty boring. Another positive sign this afternoon is the extended forecasts. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 forecasts are showing near normal temperatures and above normal rainfall.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Tropical "Something" Update....


Sorry I haven't updated this blog for a while, but I've been busy doing my "photo thing" and not much has been happening, weather wise.

Latest computer models are indicating a trough to form in the NE part of the country next week, changing our upper air flow from the tropical SE, to the NW. If this happens, the potential tropical "something" will stay to the south of Texas but our rain chances may increase from afternoon thunderstorms moving in from the NW...a more fall like pattern instead of summer. We may even see a cool front make a run for our area.

Meanwhile, the Hurricane Center wants to take the "depression" and possible tropical storm "Alex" into the Gulf by Wednesday. If Alex were to stay on the course of the Hurricane Center, we could see some big rains as it moves into Texas instead of Mexico. Either scenario looks promising for potential rain next week.

I'll be updating the storm this weekend.

Monday, June 14, 2010

A possible tropical system in Atlantic


A tropical low, almost off the coast of Africa, is being investigated by the Hurricane Center (Invest 92) for possible development. If it does turn into something it would not be a threat to the US until the end of this month. That's also our next chance of rain for San Antonio according to the latest models. Meanwhile, big storms with heavy rains are falling to the NW of us in north central Texas. The line of storms appears to be heading toward Dallas.

Here's what the National Hurricane Center has to say:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AFTER THAT. THERE
REMAINS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Saturday, June 5, 2010

Hell High not as big as advertised

Although it will be getting pretty toasty in the San Antonio area for the next couple of days, the worst of the "Hell High" appears to be missing us. Because of that, look for increasing chances of rain, starting on Tuesday, and lasting for the rest of the week.

With the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf much warmer than average, I think we will see an early tropic season this summer. Hopefully there will be only tropical depressions in the Gulf instead of major hurricanes, but with El Nino leaving, major storms are possible.

In Helotes, our yearly rainfall now stands at 25.39 inches, with almost 6 more months to come.

Thursday, June 3, 2010

Storm Reports from NOAA

Below are some storm reports from last night's fast moving, big storm. At my place in Helotes, I witnessed a couple of large limbs fall from my neighbor's home around 8:30 last night as I was outside. Unfortunately, the computer that controls my weather station needed to be re-booted, so I did not record the high wind gusts of over 60 mph that were reported within a mile of my home, but seeing the damage done to trees in the neighborhood and being outside when the gusts occurred, I feel confident that we had similar winds. Rainfall total at my place was 0.61 inches.


06/02/2010 0815 PM

N Leon Springs, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.


Winds gusting to 50 mph and numerous power lines down.




06/02/2010 0825 PM

N sea world, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e50 mph, reported by park service.


Winds gusting over 50 mph.




06/02/2010 0830 PM

3 miles SW of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e50 mph, reported by NWS employee.





06/02/2010 0830 PM

N Castle Hills, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by amateur radio.


Numerous power outages.




06/02/2010 0830 PM

8 miles NNE of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.


Numerous trees blown down around the San Antonio
Airport.




06/02/2010 0830 PM

4 miles NNE of Alamo height Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.


EST 60 mph. Large tree limbs down




06/02/2010 0832 PM

San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m64 mph, reported by ASOS.





06/02/2010 0839 PM

7 miles W of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e60 mph, reported by amateur radio.


Winds over 60 mph and nea loop 1604 and Bandera.
Several lines blown down.




06/02/2010 0840 PM

2 miles N of Alamo Heights, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.


Several tree limbs down and shingles blown from roofs




06/02/2010 0859 PM

N Alamo Heights, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by amateur radio.


Several tree Downs.




06/02/2010 0905 PM

10 miles S of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Hail e0.50 inch, reported by amateur radio.


Pea to Marble size hail report south of downtown San
Antonio.




06/02/2010 0840 PM

2 miles N of Alamo Heights, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.


Several tree limbs down and shingles blown from roofs





06/02/2010 0830 PM

4 miles NNE of Alamo height, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.


EST 60 mph. Large tree limbs down





06/02/2010 0905 PM

10 miles S of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Hail e0.50 inch, reported by amateur radio.


Pea to Marble size hail report south of downtown San
Antonio.





06/02/2010 0859 PM

N Alamo Heights, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by amateur radio.


Several tree Downs.





06/02/2010 0839 PM

7 miles W of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e60 mph, reported by amateur radio.


Winds over 60 mph and nea loop 1604 and Bandera.
Several lines blown down.





06/02/2010 0830 PM

8 miles NNE of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.


Numerous trees blown down around the San Antonio
Airport.





06/02/2010 0830 PM

N Castle Hills, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by amateur radio.


Numerous power outages.





06/02/2010 0825 PM

N sea world, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e50 mph, reported by park service.


Winds gusting over 50 mph.





06/02/2010 0832 PM

San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m64 mph, reported by ASOS.






06/02/2010 0830 PM

3 miles SW of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e50 mph, reported by NWS employee.






06/02/2010 0815 PM

N Leon Springs, Bexar County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.


Winds gusting to 50 mph and numerous power lines down.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Latest GFS looks promising


Latest computer runs are looking more optimistic for rain chances and rain amounts for late this afternoon or evening as an upper low moves this way from NW of us. We need every drop we can get before the "Hell High" moves in by later this week. Once the Hell High moves in, we could have 1-2 weeks of above normal temps and below normal precipitation.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Rain chances going away, pollution moving in...


As high pressure builds above us in the next 24 hrs, rain chances will diminish and pollution will be on the increase. Our winds have switched to the East and NE, which during the summer months, brings in transported pollution (both man-made and natural) from the eastern parts of the United States. This added pollution, which normally does not exist in our area, may cause our ozone levels to rise to over 70 ppb. by Friday and Saturday. This is a perfect example of why our current system of penalizing cities like San Antonio for high ozone is wrong. Without the additional pollution, San Antonio never reaches high ozone levels. Last summer, despite our searing heat and cloudless days, we did not go above the EPA mandated 8hr. Ozone Average Maximum of 75 ppb.. And now, the EPA may act to lower the maximum 8hr. standard even lower, forcing almost ever small, medium and large cities into non-attainment.

Below are two links to follow the potential high ozone event. On the first link, look at the sulfates in the upper right hand corner. Sulfates signify where the pollution "blob" is in the country. On the second link, just go to the ozone forecast and check out forecast where high ozone will occur. Notice that high levels will be occurring out in the Gulf of Mexico, where there are no cars. Speaking of no cars, check out the past 10 days of ozone for Joshua Tree National Park, a desolate area in south central California. They have already had several high ozone events in the past 10 days.


Tuesday, May 25, 2010

"Pop-O-Matic" Storms!


Take an unstable atmosphere, add some heat and humidity and you get lots of afternoon "poppers". While we missed out on the record 7 inch rainfall in Del Rio last night, we still managed a developing cell around 11am this morning that dropped a half inch at my backyard. With a little luck, many of us will see some brief downpours of rain this afternoon. One of the computer models wants to make it flood around here this evening...

In case some of you are too young to catch my humor in the title of this blog:

Monday, May 17, 2010

An Exciting Afternoon Ahead!

Wow! Another exciting day around here...we've got another mesoscale convective system moving down from the north, which I've been following since this morning when it formed near Amarillo, and other storms forming to the east and west of San Antonio.

With an abundance of heat and humidity outside, it would not surprise me to see some severe weather in the San Antonio area by sunset. Right now the biggest threat is heavy rain, high winds and hail. No mention of tornadoes for us, but a slight chance to our west.

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Latest from NOAA


Most of south central Texas has enjoyed a beautiful day after the large thunderstorm cluster brought more flooding overnight. Late this afternoon, some strong thunderstorms are already forming over the far western hill country near Mason. These may stick together and bring an evening thunderstorm threat to areas generally west of Austin say across mainly Llano and Burnet counties. These storms will have to overcome some capping in the atmosphere to make it farther east however...so we will keep the chances of this happening at about 30-40%. Strong gusty winds in excess of 60 mph and large hail would be the primary threat. These may last well into the evening hours if they can hold together.

Also of concern is yet another upper level disturbance over southern NM which will be moving across west Texas later tonight and then likely triggering additional storms west of our area late tonight. Much like last night...these storms may organize into a large cluster of storms and move over south central Texas primarily after midnight. The main threat if this scenario plays out, would be locally heavy rains in the 3-5 inch range. There is a small severe threat later tonight over the SW near the Rio Grande as large storms fire over the Mexican mountains and move east of the Rio Grande.

Unfortunately there is still a lot of uncertainty about the scenarios. But everybody needs to be on the lookout. Many areas cant handle any additional rainfall. Many rivers, creeks, and rivers are already in Flood stage. A Flash Flood Watch may have to be considered later tonight.

I have attached the latest graphic. Please keep watch this afternoon and tonight as the system develops. Log onto our website for the latest watches and warnings. www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

More rain is on the way...

According to today's 5 day rainfall forecast from NOAA, we could see an additional 1-3 inches of rain in our area by the end of the week. A stationary cool front and a series of upper level disturbances will cause more thunderstorms to form over most of Texas in the next few days.

Last night's mesoscale convective system moved through the San Antonio from NW Texas and dropped an additional 1.83 inches of rain in my backyard, giving me a 24hr storm total of 5.88 inches of rain. Having gone almost a month without rain, it was very welcome.

The Storm Prediction Center is showing a slight chance for severe storms to our west on both Saturday and Sunday. My guess is that because of the storms last night cooling the atmosphere, Sunday afternoon will be a better day for potential tornadoes to our west and northwest.

For an update on our monthly and yearly rainfall totals go to my weather page.

Friday, May 14, 2010

NOAA Statement and Storm chances this weekend

Here's the latest from NOAA on today's rain event and what we can expect this weekend:

NOAA: Sorry for the delayed posting, the weather situation is
not being handled well at all by the models or from our
expectations based on climatology and how heavy rain
events develop. We wanted to have the best information
possible for you.

A series of upper level ripples will move across Texas over
the weekend. The computer models have a hard time telling
which of these ripples will ignite thunderstorms. Obviously,
the ripple early this morning was at a very unusual time of day,
and produced over 8 inches of rain in northern Medina County,
and significant rain for nearly everywhere along and east of I-35.

The ripples tend to come along every 12-18 hours, but since our
coverage area is oriented east to west, we could have one in the
coastal plains and another just coming across the Rio Grande
further west at the same time.

The bottom line is we expect severe storms mainly over the
Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau tonight and Saturday,
then over the Hill Country and Metro Austin on Sunday.
We expect the heaviest rain to be south of I-10 and east of
I-35 tonight. There will be scattered thunderstorms Saturday
and Sunday, and some locations could receive 3 to 5 inches
of rain in two hours, producing localized flash flooding. However,
we do not expect a widespread flood event, and most rivers
should not rise above bankfull.

Obviously, this is a graduation weekend and many of our summer
recreation spots are getting in full gear. The main safety concerns
are for lightning (When thunder roars, go indoors) and for low
water crossings (Turn around, don't drown). Please stress with
your staff and anyone planning outdoor events to keep safety
first in mind and have a way to get weather information from
local media, the Internet, or a weather radio.

The latest and most complete information is always at our
website: http://weather.gov/austin or http://weather.gov/sanantonio
whichever is better for you to use. I have attached our latest
graphics.

-Jon

Good Grief! Over 4 inches and still raining!

A quick update at 1pm.

We've had 4.05 inches of rain at my place in Helotes this morning and more is trying to form to the west of us as I type this update.

Now there's a tornado watch for areas to our west and northwest! Follow me on Facebook for quicker updates...

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

5-12-10 Back in SA


Well, as I expected, I ended up at the birthing zone for the terrible storms that hit the Oklahoma City area later in the afternoon on Monday. If the system had come through 24 hrs earlier, I would have been able to be in the Oklahoma City area to chase the storms, but I had to be in Lubbock to help my youngest daughter move back for the summer from Texas Tech on Tuesday. After seeing all of the destruction, I won't lose much sleep not having been in the areas where the storms hit. Some of the storms were moving at over 50 mph, so chasing was very difficult and dangerous for those that attempted it. I much prefer a stationary dry line and slowly moving supercells. The conditions were very creepy, with surface winds in western OK gusting to over 50mph.

Rain chances are still looking good for San Antonio, from Thursday night through the weekend. I have attached the latest NOAA graphics above.

Monday, May 10, 2010

Waiting in Lawton, Oklahoma


It's 11am in Lawton, Oklahoma and I'm still trying to make a decision on an afternoon storm chase. Models are showing most of the sever storms will form in Central and Eastern parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. Since I have to be in Lubbock tonight, I won't be able to go eastward this afternoon. Even if I had the time, I'm not much into storm chasing where there are an abundance of trees. I like very open areas.

For San Antonio, models continue to show that our almost 30 days of dry weather, may be over. Starting on Thursday, we should see at least 5 days of good rain chances, with the best chances coming over next weekend. The latest rainfall estimates are very promising!

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Not much to talk about this week...



Not a lot to talk about this week, except for Saharan conditions in May. It's very odd to have dew points in the 40's this late in the season and our highs on Wednesday reflected this. At my place in Helotes, it started off in the 50's and ended up in the 90's!

A wimpy cool front will try to move through our area on Friday, but will return as a warm front on Saturday. If the front goes stationary for a while, we might see a slight chance for some thunderstorms on Friday night. Right now, computer models show the rain staying to the NE of San Antonio.

On Monday, there is a slight chance that thunderstorms will develop along a dry line in West Texas and some of them might drift far enough south to give San Antonio a chance of rain. At this time, most of the activity will stay far to the north of us. Hopefully, I'll have a chance to shoot some severe storms in the northern parts of Texas or western Oklahoma on Sunday and Monday, as I work my way up to Lubbock to pick up my daughter's dorm stuff on Tuesday. Right now, chances are looking pretty good for a scattered, but severe outbreak of super cells in the areas that I will be in.

Later next week, models are finally hinting at a change in our weather, giving San Antonio several days of good rain chances. I certainly hope it pans out...things are really getting dry again.

Friday, April 30, 2010

Rain chances are quickly going "poof"!


The chances for rain early next week have gone "poof"! Our best chance for rain will be tonight through Saturday night, as a weak cool front slowly moves through our area. Most of the severe storms and heavier rain will stay far to the NE. Storm chasers will be active in Missouri and eventually Arkansas and points eastward over the weekend. Right now, this weekend doesn't look as dangerous as last weekend.

A large area of tornado watches are out this afternoon. Everything is staying to the NE of us...at this point, I'll be surprised if we get more than a tenth of an inch of rain around San Antonio in the next 24 hrs.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Warm and dry week ahead.


I always say that San Antonio's Fiesta marks the beginning of summer down here and looking at the latest computer models, it appears to be right on track. We should see our first 90's this week and rain chances remain slim until late next weekend when a front pushes through. As it does, look for a chance for some more severe weather, especially to our north.

On the good side, I should be swimming in my pool for the first time this season...

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Hail Reports from this morning...

04/24/2010 0148 am

2 miles N of Alamo Heights, Bexar County.

Hail m1.00 inch, reported by trained spotter.


04/24/2010 0124 am

4 miles N of Somerset, Bexar County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.


04/24/2010 0125 am

6 miles N of Somerset, Bexar County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by storm chaser.


04/24/2010 0135 am

4 miles ENE of Lackland afbset, Bexar County.

Hail e0.70 inch, reported by amateur radio.


04/24/2010 0136 am

3 miles WSW of San Antonio, Bexar County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.


04/24/2010 0145 am

Converse, Bexar County.

Hail e0.50 inch, reported by amateur radio.


04/24/2010 0147 am

Windcrest, Bexar County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.


04/24/2010 0148 am

Alamo Heights, Bexar County.

Hail e0.88 inch, reported by public.


04/24/2010 0154 am

3 miles NE of Leon Valley, Bexar County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by public.


04/24/2010 0155 am

1 miles se of Olmos Park, Bexar County.

Hail e1.50 inch, reported by broadcast media.


04/24/2010 0148 am

Alamo Heights, Bexar County.

Hail e0.88 inch, reported by public.



04/24/2010 0154 am

3 miles NE of Leon Valley, Bexar County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by public.


04/24/2010 0145 am

Converse, Bexar County.

Hail e0.50 inch, reported by amateur radio.


04/24/2010 0147 am

Windcrest, Bexar County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.







Friday, April 23, 2010

Still waiting for those severe storms...


Well, round one of severe storms fell apart during the evening as a cool front went stationary during the night. At 3pm., the second upper low is moving out of far West Texas and some storms are starting to form as it moves eastward. With a stationary front to our north, a very active jet stream above us, a hot and humid afternoon with lots of sun, it should be the perfect recipe for a large squall line to form later today or tonight. I'm hoping there still might be a chance for an isolated storm to form this afternoon before the upper low moves in tonight.

As of now, all of the big storms and tornado watches have been in the northern Louisiana-Arkansas area. I really thought we would see a severe outbreak of storms to our west by now...but based on the latest modeling data, they may not come in until after midnight. I'm not much of a night time storm chaser!

3pm NOAA Update

A weak front/dryline has just about stalled across the I-35 corridor from Granger Lake down through central Hays County...down to Hondo. Along and east of this boundary the atmosphere remains very unstable. Right now there is a "lid" on the atmosphere keeping thunderstorm development at bay. As we continue to warm this afternoon...there is a chance that thunderstorms could break this lid in a couple of hours...leading to possible isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Chance of this happening is roughly 20-30%. This threat area would be mainly east of a Burnet-Boerne line. This threat will continue until about sundown, or late evening.

Then later on tonight...a strong upper level wave will move out of northern Mexico and cross the state...bringing additional lift and better chances of strong/severe thunderstorms forming somewhere near the I-35 corridor and then moving east as they intensify. This line/broken line of storms that are forecast, may form late tonight around midnight...and then exit into East Texas by sunrise on Saturday morning. Strong damaging winds and hail will be the main threats overnight. The highest severe weather threat will be areas east of I-35 and north of I-10.

We are fairly confident that if the storms form later night...they will happen mainly after midnight and over the eastern half of South Central Texas. Confidence is lower however with regards to how widespread the activity will be. In a situation like this where we have a "lid"...you could get isolated activity...or the entire lid could bust and a large squall line could develop.

For the latest information on the forecast, graphics, watches, and warnings...log onto the National Weather Service website atwww.srh.noaa.gov/ewx

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

|






Thursday, April 22, 2010

Severe Storm Forecast Update-3pm



It's been an interesting morning watching things develop as the cool front and upper low slowly march this direction. For San Antonio, we are in the "drizzle zone" right now, with a dew point of 64 degrees. Meanwhile, out to our west, it is sunny and storms are starting to "pop" in West Texas, the Panhandle, Kansas and Colorado. A tornado watch was just issued for most of the Texas Panhandle. Looking at regional radar, there is a very strong burst of energy emerging out of New Mexico this afternoon. As that energy moves into western Texas, look for a line of very severe storms to form. I would not be surprised to see quite a few reports of tornadoes this afternoon in that region.

For San Antonio, according to NOAA, the storms will die out before hitting us tonight, then form mainly to our east tomorrow. I'm not sure I totally agree and am leaving my schedule open for tomorrow afternoon to go storm chasing to the NW or West of San Antonio in the afternoon.

Here is what NOAA is predicting:

Some good news, in that while we still expect some severe weather across portions of South Central Texas, the main ingredients to this outbreak will focus to our W and NW tonight...and to our NE on Friday afternoon/night. Tonight we expect a lot of thunderstorm activity to form late tonight (after 6pm) across portions of west Texas. These storms will march east and possibly move into the far western hill country and southwest Texas after midnight. In addition...storms that develop over the Mexican mountains...will travel east across the Rio Grande and possibly affect areas near the river like Del Rio and Eagle Pass. At this time, this activity is not expected to make it all the way into the AUS-SAT-I-35 corridor. The main threat area tonight will remain west of a line from Burnet to Eagle Pass. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

A dryline/weak cool front is expected to push through the western half of South Central Texas by Friday afternoon. This will allow additional storms to fire Friday afternoon/evening/night as a stronger upper level storm pushes through the state. A lot will depend on boundaries, residual cloudiness, and the dryline. Again the focus and best ingredients appear to be pooled to our east...but with that said, we will still carry a chance for severe thunderstorms mainly east of a line from Kerrville to Pleasanton.

I have attached the latest graphics that depict our threat areas both Tonight and Friday Night. Another update will be given tomorrow when hopefully we can be a little more specific on the timing and threat area for the Friday evening/overnight time period.

Please go to www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx for the lastest weather information including our graphics, forecasts, watches, and warnings.

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Latest from NOAA 4-21-10


Things may be shaping up for some severe storms on Friday for the San Antonio area. Although they will probably be scattered, they could reach severe levels. Here is the latest from NOAA at Noon, 4-21-10.

NOAA Special Weather Statement:

We are looking at the possibility of some severe weather toward the end of the week. A large upper low over the Western U.S. will start to move into the Southern Rockies...and then across Texas on Friday and Saturday. A couple of disturbances will be coming our way, interacting with gulf moisture to create a chance for showers/thunderstorms/severe thunderstorms. Small chances of severe weather will exist late Thursday over our far western areas as some strong storms may develop along the Mexican mountains and try to cross the Rio Grande late Thu night.

A strong wave will move into the Edwards Plateau on Friday afternoon and Friday night...helping to trigger thunderstorms along and ahead of a dryline. There are many severe weather ingredients coming together across the southern plains...including a strong jet stream, a dryline, and gulf moisture. Location and severity of the storms will be highly dependent on where the dryline sets up during the day on Friday. The best chances of severe thunderstorms will be along and east of the dryline. Models are showing that the dryline will be hanging around South Central Texas during the day on Friday...then shifting east overnight as the upper wave moves across the area. I will say however, that trying to determine the placement of the dryline several days out is very difficult. For that reason...all areas of south central Texas should be aware of this storm threat and be ready for some possible severe weather Friday afternoon and Friday night. Large hail will be the primary threat...but strong damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

As the event gets closer, we will provide additional updates to better focus our threat areas and timing of the event. As of right now...that threat time appears to be from 4pm Fri to 6am Saturday. The threat shifts east during the night...into Saturday morning.

Please check out our website at www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx for additional details, forecasts, and graphics.

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Rainfall amounts and Friday Severe Weather?



Fantastic day in Helotes today! Here is a map of rainfall totals from 7am on Saturday, through this morning at 7am. Graphic is from CoCoRaHS, a great organization that allows volunteers to log in their rainfall totals on a daily basis. This information is passed on to NOAA, for calculating flood warnings and drought reports. If you enjoy logging your daily weather, I would certainly recommend becoming a member.

A slight chance of some rain on Tuesday, then all eyes will be on a very strong cold front that could spawn one of the biggest severe storm outbreaks of this season. Depending on what time of the day it comes in, San Antonio could even be impacted, along with the Battle of Flowers parade. Based on current model data, it appears that the front and weather will come in before Noon, but that could easily change this far out.

Stay tuned!

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Dry zone certainly went away!

Well...since my last blog, we've gotten almost 2.50 inches of rain, starting with a rogue cell that developed over my house around 6pm last night and dropped almost a half inch of rain in less than 15 minutes. The biggest rain for us fell this morning, between 9 and 10am. It looks like the upper low is slowly moving out and there appears to be only one more burst of energy, as another wave moves in from Mexico later this evening. Already, radar is picking up a developing line of storms in Mexico, moving west. Thanks to a weak cool front, with some dryer air, this system tonight should be the last of the rain for a couple of days.

Around mid week, another system will give us some rain chances, and then a pretty strong front will move in on Friday afternoon giving most of Texas a chance of seeing some severe storms that will most likely form along the front. Some storm chaser friends are thinking there will be an outbreak of severe weather for north Texas and Oklahoma. We shall see...
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