Still waiting for those severe storms...
Well, round one of severe storms fell apart during the evening as a cool front went stationary during the night. At 3pm., the second upper low is moving out of far West Texas and some storms are starting to form as it moves eastward. With a stationary front to our north, a very active jet stream above us, a hot and humid afternoon with lots of sun, it should be the perfect recipe for a large squall line to form later today or tonight. I'm hoping there still might be a chance for an isolated storm to form this afternoon before the upper low moves in tonight.
As of now, all of the big storms and tornado watches have been in the northern Louisiana-Arkansas area. I really thought we would see a severe outbreak of storms to our west by now...but based on the latest modeling data, they may not come in until after midnight. I'm not much of a night time storm chaser!
3pm NOAA Update
A weak front/dryline has just about stalled across the I-35 corridor from Granger Lake down through central Hays County...down to Hondo. Along and east of this boundary the atmosphere remains very unstable. Right now there is a "lid" on the atmosphere keeping thunderstorm development at bay. As we continue to warm this afternoon...there is a chance that thunderstorms could break this lid in a couple of hours...leading to possible isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Chance of this happening is roughly 20-30%. This threat area would be mainly east of a Burnet-Boerne line. This threat will continue until about sundown, or late evening.
Then later on tonight...a strong upper level wave will move out of northern Mexico and cross the state...bringing additional lift and better chances of strong/severe thunderstorms forming somewhere near the I-35 corridor and then moving east as they intensify. This line/broken line of storms that are forecast, may form late tonight around midnight...and then exit into East Texas by sunrise on Saturday morning. Strong damaging winds and hail will be the main threats overnight. The highest severe weather threat will be areas east of I-35 and north of I-10.
We are fairly confident that if the storms form later night...they will happen mainly after midnight and over the eastern half of South Central Texas. Confidence is lower however with regards to how widespread the activity will be. In a situation like this where we have a "lid"...you could get isolated activity...or the entire lid could bust and a large squall line could develop.
For the latest information on the forecast, graphics, watches, and warnings...log onto the National Weather Service website atwww.srh.noaa.gov/ewx
Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX
Then later on tonight...a strong upper level wave will move out of northern Mexico and cross the state...bringing additional lift and better chances of strong/severe thunderstorms forming somewhere near the I-35 corridor and then moving east as they intensify. This line/broken line of storms that are forecast, may form late tonight around midnight...and then exit into East Texas by sunrise on Saturday morning. Strong damaging winds and hail will be the main threats overnight. The highest severe weather threat will be areas east of I-35 and north of I-10.
We are fairly confident that if the storms form later night...they will happen mainly after midnight and over the eastern half of South Central Texas. Confidence is lower however with regards to how widespread the activity will be. In a situation like this where we have a "lid"...you could get isolated activity...or the entire lid could bust and a large squall line could develop.
For the latest information on the forecast, graphics, watches, and warnings...log onto the National Weather Service website atwww.srh.noaa.gov/ewx
Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX
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