Where oh where will Alex go?
Late this afternoon, tropical depression Alex was almost finished traveling through the Yucatan peninsula and is about to move into the SW Gulf of Mexico. According to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, Alex should redevelop into a tropical storm, then a category one hurricane, before moving NW into near Tampico,Mexico on Thursday. If that occurs, San Antonio will have to rely on a very rare "summer cool front" to move close enough to us to deliver some much needed rainfall. Even with a wet Spring, highs in the 90's tend to bake our vegetation around here and it does not take long to quickly move into a dry and brown landscape.
Here's where it all gets interesting...most of the time, by now, the "spaghetti" computer plots as they are known, start combining into a pretty narrow field of where a tropical system is going. With Alex, because of the rare cool front moving toward Texas and a fairly strong trough to our NE, several major computer models continue to bring Alex much closer to San Antonio. The GFS takes it into Houston, the HWRF into Corpus and the GFDL and NAM take it into Brownsville, which would all lead to some potentially big rains for south Texas. I'm leaning toward the models that take Alex near Brownsville...we shall see.
No matter what happens, it should be an exciting weather week around here...especially for this time in the summer, when it is normally pretty boring. Another positive sign this afternoon is the extended forecasts. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 forecasts are showing near normal temperatures and above normal rainfall.
Here's where it all gets interesting...most of the time, by now, the "spaghetti" computer plots as they are known, start combining into a pretty narrow field of where a tropical system is going. With Alex, because of the rare cool front moving toward Texas and a fairly strong trough to our NE, several major computer models continue to bring Alex much closer to San Antonio. The GFS takes it into Houston, the HWRF into Corpus and the GFDL and NAM take it into Brownsville, which would all lead to some potentially big rains for south Texas. I'm leaning toward the models that take Alex near Brownsville...we shall see.
No matter what happens, it should be an exciting weather week around here...especially for this time in the summer, when it is normally pretty boring. Another positive sign this afternoon is the extended forecasts. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 forecasts are showing near normal temperatures and above normal rainfall.
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