Rain, freeze forecast, etc.

A rather unusual cool front and upper level low are slowly moving this way from the west this morning. Unusual, because the upper low is tracking very far south, located around northern Baja California, instead of a more typical, northerly track. The system is slow moving and will cause light to moderate rain to start forming over our area during the day and evening. As this system gets closer on Monday afternoon, there is now a slight chance to start seeing our first signs of Spring supercell thunderstorms in the afternoon as our dew points rise and we get some afternoon heating. Right now, the biggest threat appears to be high winds and hail, but there could be enough instability for tornadoes. Those odds will be very slight, especially if the cloud cover does not break and temperatures remain below 70 degrees. Latest rainfall estimates from NOAA, are around an inch of rain.

Looking down the road, dry, west winds on Tuesday will warm us up into the low 80's, then another front comes through by the weekend, taking up back down to slightly below normal temperatures but mostly clear skies for the weekend. What concerns me right now is the third week of March. Computer models continue to show a strong cold front around the 20th, which could open the door for a late season freeze. That's why I would not recommend planting any tropical plants unless you have a good way of covering them, in case these models pan out.

Speaking of tropical plants, you can blame "Global Warming" for your higher priced tomatoes this Spring. Record cold temps in Florida have eliminated 70 percent of their crop.

Florida's Winter Freeze Decimates Tomato Crop

Locally, this past winter has been the 7th coldest on record for San Antonio (December-February) and the coldest February since 1978. Austin Bergstrom Airport reported a tie for the coldest February ever recorded and the 8th coldest winter for Austin and 4th coldest for Del Rio.

Because of our cold winter and continued rain, my long range forecast for this summer is also looking much more tolerable than last summer. Right now, I think we will have a "Back to the 70's" kind of summer. During the 70's, San Antonio experienced very few 100 degree days and consistent afternoon coastal showers to keep us from baking like we did last summer.

As for the hurricane season, if El Niño goes away, which it is starting to do, we could see an increase in hurricanes in the Gulf this year.