NOAA Statement and Storm chances this weekend
Here's the latest from NOAA on today's rain event and what we can expect this weekend:NOAA: Sorry for the delayed posting, the weather situation is
not being handled well at all by the models or from our
expectations based on climatology and how heavy rain
events develop. We wanted to have the best information
possible for you.
A series of upper level ripples will move across Texas over
the weekend. The computer models have a hard time telling
which of these ripples will ignite thunderstorms. Obviously,
the ripple early this morning was at a very unusual time of day,
and produced over 8 inches of rain in northern Medina County,
and significant rain for nearly everywhere along and east of I-35.
The ripples tend to come along every 12-18 hours, but since our
coverage area is oriented east to west, we could have one in the
coastal plains and another just coming across the Rio Grande
further west at the same time.
The bottom line is we expect severe storms mainly over the
Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau tonight and Saturday,
then over the Hill Country and Metro Austin on Sunday.
We expect the heaviest rain to be south of I-10 and east of
I-35 tonight. There will be scattered thunderstorms Saturday
and Sunday, and some locations could receive 3 to 5 inches
of rain in two hours, producing localized flash flooding. However,
we do not expect a widespread flood event, and most rivers
should not rise above bankfull.
Obviously, this is a graduation weekend and many of our summer
recreation spots are getting in full gear. The main safety concerns
are for lightning (When thunder roars, go indoors) and for low
water crossings (Turn around, don't drown). Please stress with
your staff and anyone planning outdoor events to keep safety
first in mind and have a way to get weather information from
local media, the Internet, or a weather radio.
The latest and most complete information is always at our
website: http://weather.gov/austin or http://weather.gov/sanantonio
whichever is better for you to use. I have attached our latest
graphics.
-Jon
not being handled well at all by the models or from our
expectations based on climatology and how heavy rain
events develop. We wanted to have the best information
possible for you.
A series of upper level ripples will move across Texas over
the weekend. The computer models have a hard time telling
which of these ripples will ignite thunderstorms. Obviously,
the ripple early this morning was at a very unusual time of day,
and produced over 8 inches of rain in northern Medina County,
and significant rain for nearly everywhere along and east of I-35.
The ripples tend to come along every 12-18 hours, but since our
coverage area is oriented east to west, we could have one in the
coastal plains and another just coming across the Rio Grande
further west at the same time.
The bottom line is we expect severe storms mainly over the
Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau tonight and Saturday,
then over the Hill Country and Metro Austin on Sunday.
We expect the heaviest rain to be south of I-10 and east of
I-35 tonight. There will be scattered thunderstorms Saturday
and Sunday, and some locations could receive 3 to 5 inches
of rain in two hours, producing localized flash flooding. However,
we do not expect a widespread flood event, and most rivers
should not rise above bankfull.
Obviously, this is a graduation weekend and many of our summer
recreation spots are getting in full gear. The main safety concerns
are for lightning (When thunder roars, go indoors) and for low
water crossings (Turn around, don't drown). Please stress with
your staff and anyone planning outdoor events to keep safety
first in mind and have a way to get weather information from
local media, the Internet, or a weather radio.
The latest and most complete information is always at our
website: http://weather.gov/austin or http://weather.gov/sanantonio
whichever is better for you to use. I have attached our latest
graphics.
-Jon
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