Hmm...so,now what?

OK, I realize that it is over freezing and that the odds of it snowing in the next 24hrs is pretty remote now. So, what happened? Well, for starters, the cold air that came down a couple of days ago was not as cold as forecast by the models. Secondly, the sun came out yesterday and warmed us up to 50 degrees. Although we were clear for most of last night, we did not get down below freezing as had originally been forecast. On top of that, the clouds thinned during the day and allowed us to warm up to over 40 degrees. We did have some "BB" size sleet for a few minutes this morning for a little fun.

Hmm...so, now what? Well, the good news at my place in Helotes, is that we have already cooled down into the upper 30's, now that the sun is going down. Secondly, our winds continue to blow from the NE, which is keeping the air chilled. And, most importantly, our dew point in Helotes is still 5 degrees below freezing, which means that the air will cool rapidly if moisture starts falling soon. Lastly, the upper low will track very close to our area, with cold winds aloft. If we can even get into the low to mid 30's, we might still have a chance of seeing some snow around here. It might not stick, but would still look great. I rate our odds at about 20% that this will happen. More than likely, we will see some more sleet and of course, the ever so boring, cold rain!

I am reminded of a snow event that took place about 38 years ago in Comfort, TX. At the time, my family had a small ranch there and the weather was almost identical to tonight's weather. It was above freezing and snow was not even mentioned. My friends and I (Jon Johnston and John McClenny) were playing night volleyball and not paying attention to the light drizzle that was coming down. Anyhow, we all went to bed around midnight and to my surprise as I went outside to use the crude, outdoor, bathroom facilities around 3am, huge snow flakes began to fall. I mean, huge! Some of the flakes were as large as half dollar coins. In just over 4 hours, we ended up with almost 5 inches of snow.