Hermine moving more northerly now...less rain, more wind!
This is what I was worried about....the latest update on Hermine from our local NOAA office:
Hermine made landfall late last night just south of Brownsville...and is currently tracking north across south Texas. Current position is near Alice where they are getting tropical storm force wind gusts near 50 mph. The storm is moving slightly to the right of the current forecast track.
The track of Hermine will take the storm north during the day, crossing near the San Antonio area by 1pm. The storm continues to move north at 17 mph. This has allowed the storm to keep its strength a little longer than earlier anticipated. Because of this, am introducing some possible wind impacts across the far southern areas of South Central Texas over Atascosa, Frio, and Karnes Counties. Across these counties, tropical storm force winds of 40 mph are possible, with some gusts up to 50 mph. These winds could start as early as 9am...and last several hours through early afternoon. These winds may be strong enough for some minor wind damage and power outages. Will have to watch this closely as wind impacts could move farther north into the San Antonio area. Gusty conditions will prevail elsewhere across South Central Texas during the day with winds forecast of 25 to 35 mph...some gusts as high as 50 mph in the heavier rain bands.
Because of the fast movement and track of the storm, we are scaling back our total rain forecast, especially over western areas. I have attached the latest graphic with our thinking of rainfall potential. 3-5 inches mainly east of a Kerrville to Pearsall line, 1-3 inches west of this line. We can still get some isolated totals in the 8-10 inch range...but my confidence of this is going down because of Hermine's fast movement.
East of the forecast track...the threat of isolated tornadoes will remain. Tornado watches will likely be in effect for portions of the day. The small tropical tornadoes typically occur in the strongest storms/rainbands. This threat area will be mainly east of 281 late this morning and afternoon as storms intensify. The tornado threat will lower tonight as the storm moves out of our area.
So as a recap...the threats are changing. Wind threat will increase through this morning over the southern half of South Central Texas as Hermine moves quickly north. Damage is being reported in Jim Wells County. Widespread flash flood threat is decreasing. Flash flooding will still likely occur in some locations, but overall rain amounts should be lower than originally anticipated due to Hermine's fast movement to the north.
For the latest watches, warnings, and advisories....check our website atwww.srh..noaa.gov/ewx
Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX
The track of Hermine will take the storm north during the day, crossing near the San Antonio area by 1pm. The storm continues to move north at 17 mph. This has allowed the storm to keep its strength a little longer than earlier anticipated. Because of this, am introducing some possible wind impacts across the far southern areas of South Central Texas over Atascosa, Frio, and Karnes Counties. Across these counties, tropical storm force winds of 40 mph are possible, with some gusts up to 50 mph. These winds could start as early as 9am...and last several hours through early afternoon. These winds may be strong enough for some minor wind damage and power outages. Will have to watch this closely as wind impacts could move farther north into the San Antonio area. Gusty conditions will prevail elsewhere across South Central Texas during the day with winds forecast of 25 to 35 mph...some gusts as high as 50 mph in the heavier rain bands.
Because of the fast movement and track of the storm, we are scaling back our total rain forecast, especially over western areas. I have attached the latest graphic with our thinking of rainfall potential. 3-5 inches mainly east of a Kerrville to Pearsall line, 1-3 inches west of this line. We can still get some isolated totals in the 8-10 inch range...but my confidence of this is going down because of Hermine's fast movement.
East of the forecast track...the threat of isolated tornadoes will remain. Tornado watches will likely be in effect for portions of the day. The small tropical tornadoes typically occur in the strongest storms/rainbands. This threat area will be mainly east of 281 late this morning and afternoon as storms intensify. The tornado threat will lower tonight as the storm moves out of our area.
So as a recap...the threats are changing. Wind threat will increase through this morning over the southern half of South Central Texas as Hermine moves quickly north. Damage is being reported in Jim Wells County. Widespread flash flood threat is decreasing. Flash flooding will still likely occur in some locations, but overall rain amounts should be lower than originally anticipated due to Hermine's fast movement to the north.
For the latest watches, warnings, and advisories....check our website atwww.srh..noaa.gov/ewx
Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX
Useful and informing to know. If it wasn't for this post I would have never guessed. Thank you for the effort in putting everything so neetly.
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