Latest from NOAA-6pm
Here is the very latest from our local NOAA office about Tropical Storm Hermine:
No major changes from our earlier updates on the heavy rain event that is forecast over the area on Tuesday. Already today we are starting to see the moisture surge into the coastal plains of Texas ahead of Hermine. This will likely continue over the next 36 hours as Hermine makes landfall, and then tracks northward up into the western Hill Country by Tuesday night.
The track of Hermine has been fairly steady during the day...making landfall tonight south of Brownsville...and then moving steadily north northwest overnight. By early afternoon Tuesday, the center of the weakening system will be just east of Eagle Pass...and then be near Uvalde by 7 pm Tuesday evening.
Since Hermine has sped up...I am updating our target window of highest threats to include 10am-10pm on Tuesday for most of the area. Its during the late morning, afternoon, and evening on Tuesday that south central Texas will likely see its heaviest rains. Areas over the western and northern Hill Country will see the threat time expand several hours past midnight early Wednesday morning.
Widespread rains of 2-5 inches are possible...with blinding tropical downpours and rain rates of 1-3 inches per hour. This will likely cause flash flooding in some areas and is why we have a Flash Flood Watch out until noon on Wednesday. As bands of rain set up and move north through the area, there is the possibility of some isolated rain totals near 12 inches. Flash flooding is the #1 weather related killer. Take precautions now. There will likely be flooded roads somewhere in South Central Texas by this time tomorrow. Heed warnings and dont drive through low water crossings. As the system moves north into the Edwards Plateau after midnight early Wed morning, our heavy rain threat will lower. Only residual flooding on creeks, streams, and rivers will likely remain on Wednesday.
As we saw in Dolly...areas to the right of the tropical cyclone's track could see isolated tornadoes develop in the strongest showers/storms/rainbands. Be on the lookout for these small tornadoes as they will occur very quickly and with little warning. The pockets of damage are usually fairly small and isolated, but can bring additional tree and structure damage.
A wind advisory has been issued for most areas of South Central Texas with gusty winds of 20-30 mph expected on Tuesday. By far, the main threats with the system remain the heavy rainfall and isolated tornado threat.
Please see the latest forecast, watches, warnings, and advisories on our website at
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx
Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin San Antonio TX
The track of Hermine has been fairly steady during the day...making landfall tonight south of Brownsville...and then moving steadily north northwest overnight. By early afternoon Tuesday, the center of the weakening system will be just east of Eagle Pass...and then be near Uvalde by 7 pm Tuesday evening.
Since Hermine has sped up...I am updating our target window of highest threats to include 10am-10pm on Tuesday for most of the area. Its during the late morning, afternoon, and evening on Tuesday that south central Texas will likely see its heaviest rains. Areas over the western and northern Hill Country will see the threat time expand several hours past midnight early Wednesday morning.
Widespread rains of 2-5 inches are possible...with blinding tropical downpours and rain rates of 1-3 inches per hour. This will likely cause flash flooding in some areas and is why we have a Flash Flood Watch out until noon on Wednesday. As bands of rain set up and move north through the area, there is the possibility of some isolated rain totals near 12 inches. Flash flooding is the #1 weather related killer. Take precautions now. There will likely be flooded roads somewhere in South Central Texas by this time tomorrow. Heed warnings and dont drive through low water crossings. As the system moves north into the Edwards Plateau after midnight early Wed morning, our heavy rain threat will lower. Only residual flooding on creeks, streams, and rivers will likely remain on Wednesday.
As we saw in Dolly...areas to the right of the tropical cyclone's track could see isolated tornadoes develop in the strongest showers/storms/rainbands. Be on the lookout for these small tornadoes as they will occur very quickly and with little warning. The pockets of damage are usually fairly small and isolated, but can bring additional tree and structure damage.
A wind advisory has been issued for most areas of South Central Texas with gusty winds of 20-30 mph expected on Tuesday. By far, the main threats with the system remain the heavy rainfall and isolated tornado threat.
Please see the latest forecast, watches, warnings, and advisories on our website at
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx
Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin San Antonio TX
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