Here comes Hermine!
Here is the latest info from NOAA on Tropical Storm Hermine...
Overnight, Tropical Depression #10 strengthened a bit and is now officially Tropical Storm Hermine. Hermine is forecast to remain a tropical storm before she makes landfall early Tuesday over northern Mexico just south of Brownsville. I have attached the latest track of Hermine.
This means the heavy rain threat will continue for South Central Texas through at least mid day on Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of South Central Texas starting midnight tonight and lasting until Noon on Wednesday. As Hermine makes her way onshore, Gulf moisture will spread north into the region. This rainfall will start as early as today along the southern coastal plains and continue through Wednesday as the storm moves across southern areas of Texas and into the Hill Country by Wednesday afternoon.
The main threat for our area will be the heavy rainfall. The 24hr time frame from Noon Tue to Noon Wed appears to be the time for the highest likelihood of flooding...with Tuesday night still possibly being a bullseye for flooding somewhere in our area. Flood events very often happen at night during tropical events. Rain rates of 1-3 inches per hour will likely lead to flash flooding across the region with widespread rain totals of 2-5 inches expected....isolated higher totals of 5-10 inches in a few spots. I have attached a graphic from our office showing the threat area. I have also attached a graphic showing the region-wide rainfall potential. Remember that Flash Flooding is the number one weather related killer.
As Hermine gets better organized over the next 24 hours, this will spread a small tornado threat into south central Texas over the next 48 hours. Typically we will see the highest threat area to the right of the landfalling track. These tropical tornadoes come with little warning as they usually remain fairly small and can last for generally less than 10 min. They can bring small pockets of damage like we saw with Dolly in 2008.
Rain chances will decrease by Wednesday night and Thursday as the main circulation will be moving north into the southern plains out of our area. Please keep up to date on the latest forecast track of Hermine and our Flash Flood potential by going to our website at www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx
Stay safe and alert.
Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX
This means the heavy rain threat will continue for South Central Texas through at least mid day on Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of South Central Texas starting midnight tonight and lasting until Noon on Wednesday. As Hermine makes her way onshore, Gulf moisture will spread north into the region. This rainfall will start as early as today along the southern coastal plains and continue through Wednesday as the storm moves across southern areas of Texas and into the Hill Country by Wednesday afternoon.
The main threat for our area will be the heavy rainfall. The 24hr time frame from Noon Tue to Noon Wed appears to be the time for the highest likelihood of flooding...with Tuesday night still possibly being a bullseye for flooding somewhere in our area. Flood events very often happen at night during tropical events. Rain rates of 1-3 inches per hour will likely lead to flash flooding across the region with widespread rain totals of 2-5 inches expected....isolated higher totals of 5-10 inches in a few spots. I have attached a graphic from our office showing the threat area. I have also attached a graphic showing the region-wide rainfall potential. Remember that Flash Flooding is the number one weather related killer.
As Hermine gets better organized over the next 24 hours, this will spread a small tornado threat into south central Texas over the next 48 hours. Typically we will see the highest threat area to the right of the landfalling track. These tropical tornadoes come with little warning as they usually remain fairly small and can last for generally less than 10 min. They can bring small pockets of damage like we saw with Dolly in 2008.
Rain chances will decrease by Wednesday night and Thursday as the main circulation will be moving north into the southern plains out of our area. Please keep up to date on the latest forecast track of Hermine and our Flash Flood potential by going to our website at www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx
Stay safe and alert.
Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX
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